January 6, 2009  by WH | A10CollegeHoops

Here are my final noncon rankings and comments. Per usual, I am unlikely to post again until the end of league play once conference games begin.

Even though some teams have outperformed or underperformed my expectations, I can’t say any team has truly surprised me with the exception of GW (just terrible lately). I didn’t anticipate such a slow start for Charlotte, and UMass struggled more than I expected, but both teams had obvious question marks before the season began.

As of now, we only have two schools that look like NCAA teams, but Rhody has a decent chance and I expect another team to make a big run in league play (Temple with a full roster?). I would be thrilled to get three teams in given the so-so noncon performance.

Speaking of which, looks like I will finish 5 games below my noncon forecast. Ironically, this is the first year in awhile that I did not automatically deduct five wins from my combined forecast. Had I done so, I might be perfect! (not that it would be a good thing). Too many damned near misses and blown leads late in games.

VALEDICTORIANS

1)XAVIER (unchanged). The Muskies (11-2). The Musketeers bounced back from a two-game losing skid with convincing wins over Robert Morris and at Virginia. Frosh PG Terrell Holloway has taken over the starting position, allowing Dante Jackson to play more at his natural position of off-guard. Two other touted frosh, Kenny Frease and long-range gunner Brad Redford, have come on strong. Upperclassmen Derrick Brown and BJ Raymond have also stepped up. If Holloway continues to mature rapidly, the Musketeers have to be considered the clear league favorite.

2)DAYTON (unchanged). The Flyers (13-1) have beaten all the teams they are supposed to beat and have a marquee win over Marquette to put themselves in line for an NCAA bid. Dayton does struggle at times to put the ball in the basket, but the team is very athletic and plays topnotch defense. With just a little better shooting and scoring, the Flyers have all the tools to battle archrival Xavier for the league title.

HONOR ROLL

3)RHODE ISLAND (+1). The Rams (10-4) are a few points away – agonizingly close losses at Duke and Oklahoma State – from being locked in for an at-large bid. The team is still well positioned, but URI needs to rack up 11 or 12 wins in conference play and advance deep into the league tourney to merit consideration. Seven-foot sophomore Will Martell has been a surprise contributor while Jimmy Baron Jr. and Keith Cothran have performed like All-Conference players. The defense is still a bit unreliable, but the Rams are deep and athletic and have the talent to make a run for the conference championship.

AVERAGE STUDENTS

4)CHARLOTTE (+1). The 49ers (5-7) might be playing the best ball of any A-10 team outside of Xavier, Dayton and URI, but a rash of injuries has further depleted an already-thin roster. Sophomore forward An’juan Wilderness is out for a few weeks and sophomore Charles Dewhurst was lost for the year to a knee injury. Charlotte has no backup point guard and needs a few of its healthier players to step up. Hard to believe a 5-7 team might be the fourth best squad in the A-10, but every program in the conference has significant flaws.

5)RICHMOND (+1). The Spiders (8-6) are one of the most disappointing teams in the league despite eight wins. The team blew a late lead at Virginia Military Institute and has lost to all three in-state rivals (ODU and VCU are the others) even though the Spiders arguably have the most talent of the bunch. The defense has been soft and the offense mistake prone. Yet Richmond still has the size, athleticism and backcourt play to finish in the conference’s top four if the players learn how to close out games.

6) TEMPLE (-3). After beating Tennessee, the Owls (6-6) stumbled badly with three straight losses, including a whopper at Long Beach State. Temple rebounded Monday night with a win over Kent State. Sophomore forward Craig Williams had a career game (16 points) and touted Argentine PG Juan Fernandez (8 points, 4 assists) wowed the crowd in his debut. Temple’s problems have stemmed from poor point play – a concern of mine in my preseason review – and lethargic play among bigmen Lavoy Allen and Sergio Olmos. The addition of Fernandez and further contributions from Williams could make the Owls a big factor in conference play, however.

7)LASALLE (+2). The Explorers (8-5) beat several mediocre opponents to enter conference action with a three-game winning streak. Ruben Guillandeaux seems to be awaking from a season-long slumber while Rodney Green and Kimmani Barrett have stepped up their games. Defense and rebounding have kept LaSalle in most games, but postseason possibilities rest on whether the offense shows major improvement. The lack of consistent point play and outside shooting have been the team’s undoing.

*8*)ST. BONAVENTURE (unchanged). The Bonnies (7-3) recovered from a blowout loss at home to Niagara by topping Bucknell and Central Arkansas on the road. Granted, the competition wasn’t great, but two road wins of any sort is a big accomplishment for the rapidly recovering program. The 6-10 freshman sensation Andrew Nicholson looks like the program’s biggest recruiting find in a decade or more. Expect the Bonnies to be very competitive in most games, especially at home, and a winning record is by no means out of the question. The team now has enough talent to compete with almost any team in the A-10. Point play is just so-so, however, and the Bonnies lack outside shooting when Chris Matthews is cold.

9)DUQUESNE (+4). The Dukes (9-4) are one of the two big surprises in nonconference play, along with St. Bonaventure. They lost to the four best teams on their sked but have handled all the opponents from lesser conferences. Aaron Jackson, who’s playing like an A-10 First Teamer, is one of four “veterans” who have carried the program while the youngsters mature. Touted frosh Melquan Bolding has come on strong to join PG Eric Evans as top candidates for the league’s All-Rookie team. Shooter Jason Duty, formerly a recruited walk-on, has been a surprisingly big contributor. If only the Dukes had one legit bigman …

10) ST. LOUIS (+2). The Bills (9-5) have won seven of their last eight games against mostly weaker competition, though not without some struggles. Rick Majerus has his young squad playing solid defense and a controlled offense, but points sometimes are hard to come by. Frosh bigman Willie Reed looks like a future all-conference player and two other newcomers, PG Kwamain Mitchell and F Brian Conklin, have impressed. The Bills are a middle-of-the-pack team at best, but they will pull some upsets in league play.

BACK OF THE CLASS

11)ST. JOSEPH’S (-4). The Hawks (6-7) simply don’t have enough Division 1 players. Sophomore forward Idris Hilliard has shown marked improvement, but none of the reserves has contributed significantly. St. Joe’s has to rely on no more than 3-4 players, led by Ahmad Nivins, to do the scoring, but the core group doesn’t have tons of energy leftover for defense at the end of a game. The tank could run dry in late February unless Martelli develops a bench.

12)MASSACHUSETTS (-1). The Minutemen (5-8) followed a four-game win streak with a two-game skid in which the team lost by a combined 56 points to Houston and Vanderbilt. What to make? Impossible to say. Rookie coach Derek Kellogg sure looks green and senior point guard Chris Lowe is struggling mightily to run the new offense. Yet UMass is still capable of beating virtually any team in the A-10, as the win at Kansas attests. The first game in league play vs. Dayton could be telling.

CLASS CLOWNS

13)FORDHAM (+1). The Rams (2-10) have gotten a boost from 6-9 West Virginia transfer Jacob Green, but this team is headed for 20-plus losses. Much too young and much too small (-10 rebounding margin). Coach ain’t all that great, either.

14)GEORGE WASHINGTON (-4). The Colonials (6-6) aren’t worse than Fordham, but while the Rams are getting better, the Colonials have badly regressed. The team lost four straight to Vermont, Hawaii, Coppin State and … Longwood! Travis King is still not his old self, but at least he has an excuse. The same cannot be said for Rob Diggs, Wynton Witherspoon, Damian Hollis – or Karl Hobbs. GW is near the bottom of the league in scoring, shooting, rebounding and assists. Call the Coast Guard.

ALL-CONFERENCE PROJECTIONS (based on current performance)

POY

Dionte Christmas

FIRST TEAM

Dionte Christmas, Temple
Ahmad Nivins, St. Joseph’s
Derrick Brown, Xavier
Aaron Jackson, Duquesne
Chris Wright, Dayton

SECOND TEAM

Tony Gaffney, UMass
Jimmy Baron Jr., Rhode Island
Damian Saunders, Duquesne
Ricky Harris, UMass
Keith Cothran, Rhode Island

THIRD TEAM

Jonathan Hall, St. Bonaventure
David Gonzalvez, Richmond
Tommie Liddell, St. Louis
Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonaventure
Dijuan Harris, Charlotte

DEFENSIVE POY

Tony Gaffney, UMass

ALL-DEFENSIVE TEAM

Tony Gaffney, UMass
Garrett Williamson, St. Josephs
Aaron Jackson, Duquesne
Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonaventure
Ahmad Nivins, St. Josephs

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonaventure

ALL-NEWCOMER TEAM

Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonaventure
Eric Evans, Duquesne
Terrell Holloway, Xavier
Jio Fontan, Fordham
Brian Conklin, St. Louis

MOST IMPROVED PLAYER

Tony Gaffney