Location: Kingston, R.I.

Enrollment: 15,650

Founded: 1892

President: Dr. Robert L. Carothers

Athletic Director: Thorr Bjorn

Athletics Web Sites: gorhody.com, projo.com

Nickname: Rams

Colors: Light Blue, Dark Blue, and White

Arena: Ryan Center

Capacity: 7,657

Average Attendance: 5,915

Head Coach: Jim Baron

Overall Record: 314-309 (50.4% Winning Percentage)

Record at Rhode Island: 108-107

2007-2008 Record: 21-12 (7-9) NIT First Round

Assistants: Kevin Clark, Pat Clarke

ROSTER

1 Stevie Mejia FR PG 5-9 175 Boston
2 Ben Eaves R-SO F 6-7 225 England/UConn
4 Jamal Wilson FR WF 6-5 195 Philadelphia
5 Marquis Jones SO PG 6-1 200 S. Plainfield, NJ/St. Thomas More (CT)
12 Orion Outerbridge FR PF 6-9 210 Boston/New Hampton School (NH)
15 Lamonte Ulmer JR F 6-6 215 Hamden, CT/Notre Dame (MA)
*20 Jimmy Baron SR WG 6-3 195 East Greenwich, RI/Worcester (MA) Academy
21 Delroy James R-SO F 6-8 220 Brooklyn, NY/Laurinburg (NC) Prep
22 Keith Cothran JR WG 6-4 195 New Haven, CT/ Winchendon (MA)
32 Will Martell SO C 7-0 245 Rumson, NJ/The Hun School (NJ)
*33 Kahiem Seawright SR PF 6-8 235 Uniondale, NY
*54 Jason Francis SR C/F 6-9 280 Old Harbor, Jamaica/SE Illinois JC

*Returning starters

OVERVIEW

Winning 20 games and going to the NIT is considered a big achievement in most years. It’s a big disappointment, however, after a team races to a 20-4 record and jumps into the national rankings. Only a massive breakdown could deny a team so quick out of the starting gate from finishing the season in the NCAA Tournament.

That’s exactly what happened to Rhode Island. The Rams suffered one of the worst letdowns in A-10 history, losing nine of their last 11 games to finish 7-9 in conference play. The team’s final loss at Creighton in the NIT summed up the entire season. URI roared out to a 20-point lead but withered in the crunch. Rams became lambs.

There’s plenty of blame to go around, but it starts with the coach. Jim Baron lost his grip on the team. The defense leaked like a broken fire hydrant and the players panicked on offense.

Another Baron, the coach’s son, figured in the collapse. Jim Baron Jr. suffered the worst shooting slump of his career in the final stretch. The rest of the players also shoulder plenty of blame, especially at the defensive end. The Rams guarded opponents about as well as AIG minded its money.

Can the Rams recover? URI lost two key players, point guard Parfait Bitee and First Team A-10 selection Will Daniels, but the roster is dotted with good athletes and no small amount of skill. Baron also brought in a good recruiting class. There are questions at point and the scoring of Daniels has to be replaced, but the team has options.

A bigger unknown is whether the Rams can recover mentally and learn to trust each other again. That goes not only for the players, but for the coaches and fans as well.

DEPARTED PLAYERS

Will Daniels – The 6-8 forward, named to the A-10’s First Team, finished third in the league in scoring (18.6 ppg, 50.1% FG) and was also among the top 10 in rebounds (6.5 rpg). Daniels thrived in transition, could score inside and knock down the trey (36% 3PG). He didn’t always exercise good shot selection, however, and turned the ball over too much (80). While Daniels still put up nice numbers during the Rams’ season-ending slump, he failed to make enough big plays when it counted most and he did not give his all on defense.

Parfait Bitee – Former wing guard turned himself into a quality point guard and excelled in his final year. An All-Conference defender, Bitee also set career highs in scoring (11.8 ppg), assists (4.7 apg) and shooting (49.6% FG, 51.2% 3PG). In tight spots, he often hit big buckets, and Bitee guarded the other team’s best perimeter scorer. Like Daniels, though, Bitee was an accomplice to URI’s collapse. He was not a creative distributor and left his own man too much – often out of necessity – to contribute to the team’s defensive breakdowns.

Joe Mbang (6.3 ppg, 4.1 rpg). Muscular but undersized power forward regressed in his final season. Mbang was not a big factor inside and his outside touch deserted him (27% 3PG, down from 39%).

Hakim McCullar – Athletic 6-7 “tweener” from Cincinnati left the program after riding the bench as a freshman.

RETURNING PLAYERS

Jimmy Baron Jr. (14.2 ppg, 43% FG, 91.3% FT, 64 assists, 38 turnovers). The coach’s son did not have a bad season, but it was clearly a frustrating one. Baron’s scoring flattened out at 14 points a game, and while his 3-point shooting was still excellent at 40.6%, his percentage tumbled from 48%. What’s worse, he went into a funk during the team’s year-end slide. Four of the five games in which he failed to score in double figures came during the stretch run. He averaged less than 10 points in URI’s last nine losses –a number inflated by a 25-point outburst vs. Charlotte.

It’s not fair to blame Baron for URI’s failure to make the NCAA tournament. The main cause was poor defense by the whole team, a problem to which Baron contributed. He’s not especially quick and has trouble guarding opponents who are. What Baron can be blamed for is poor shot selection. He takes too many shots well behind the 3-point line, even when tightly guarded, instead of passing the ball. Opponents put bigger, athletic defenders on Baron and hedged when he went behind screens, pushing him further from the basket. Baron took the shots anyway. When he missed, long rebounds often led to fastbreaks for the other team. It could have a demoralizing effect.

Baron wants to be a leader, but sometimes the best way to lead is to defer, especially when the coach is your father. Teammates might think it’s dad who’s giving Junior license to shoot. Baron should focus on the two things at which he excels. He’s a great spot-up shooter, as good as any in the country. He can help his team most by taking shots when he’s open and has his feet set. The rest of the time he should pass or act as a decoy. He’s also very handy when URI has the lead late in a game. Baron hit 73 of 80 free throws last year and has nailed 172 of 189 in his career.

Kahiem Seawright (9.2 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 2.1 apg, 44% FG, 42 blocks). URI’s undersized 6-8 power forward did not progress as much as hoped in his third year. Seawright’s scoring fell and his field-goal percentage slid to a career low 44%, a poor number for a player who takes most of his shots near the basket.

Seawright is not a polished low-post operator, and though he jumps quickly, he does not jump very high. He had trouble finishing against more athletic defenders. Seawright prefers to take opponents off the dribble, but he gave the ball too much (86 turnovers) and has not honed a consistent 15-foot jumper. It’s possible he could do a better job in those areas as a senior, but don’t count on it. Seawright is a third or fourth scoring option.

What Baron can count on is Seawright’s effort on the boards. He’s the league’s top returning rebounder – only Bryant Dunston grabbed more last year – and one of the best offensive boardmen. Seawright grabbed 10 or more boards in 14 games, reaching a season-high 15 three times. He’s also a surprisingly good interior passer (68 assists) and the team’s best post defender even though he’s often overmatched. If Seawright focuses on his strengths he’s a pretty good player.

Keith Cothran (7.3 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.9 apg, 47% FG, 24% 3PG, 59 steals). The talented 6-4 swingman can change a game with his athleticism and defense. Cothran has point-like abilities and is terrific in the open floor. Long and quick, he’s good at pressuring the ball and gets lots of steals that he turns into easy baskets.

Cothran is less effective when the game slows. He’s a suspect outside shooter and has trouble against more physical defenders. Just 190 pounds, Cothran seemed to wear down in the second half of the season. Defenses also figured him out, especially in conference play. He scored in double figures in seven of the first 13 games but only twice the rest of the year. In URI’s last nine losses, he averaged just 5 points. Cothran has to get stronger and shoot better to be more effective. He’s a good player now. He could be an all-conference player if he addresses his weaknesses.

Lamonte Ulmer (7.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 50.5% FG, 33 steals, 25 blocks). The 6-6 wing forward, who’s like a bigger version of Cothran, improved considerably in his second year. An explosive athlete with boundless energy, Ulmer excels in the transition game. He handles the ball well, finishes with authority and is quick to the offensive glass. He’s also a disruptive defender in a press, using his long arms to deflect or steal passes.

Ulmer is less dangerous in the halfcourt. He’s not a good long-range shooter (0-3 3PG), and despite adding 25 pounds of muscle, he had difficulty finishing when he got bumped in the lane. Ulmer is most effective off the dribble, but defenders are smart enough to lay off him. After scoring in double figures six times in nonconference play, he only scored 10 points or more in three A-10 games. Even a decent 12-foot faceup jumper would make Ulmer more difficult to guard.

Baron needs a more rounded performance from Ulmer as a junior, especially on defense. He leaves his man too much, fails to close out on shooters and bites too easily on upfakes.

Delroy James (3.3 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 50% FG, 9 mpg) . The first appearance by the 6-8 forward took a year and a half owing to clearinghouse problems and a suspension. When James finally suited up, he showed a world of potential. Like his bigger brother Shawn, who played at Duquesne, James has long arms, good footwork and quick springs. He’s more of a natural scorer, though, who can shoot outside, take defenders off the dribble or finish near the basket. Of all the Rams, he’s the one with the most potential to replace the total game of Will Daniels. In the last eight games of the season, James averaged 8 points and more than 6 rebounds, including a career-high 13 points vs. St. Joseph’s.

Given such a long layoff and limited experience, James has much to improve upon. He was sloppy with the ball at times (4 assists to 19 turnovers) and took some rushed shots. His defense (9 steals, 5 blocks) is also a work in progress. Most important, James has to keep up with his classwork because he probably doesn’t have much room for error left. His upside is tremendous, but for now it’s merely potential waiting to be tapped.

Marquis Jones (1.7 ppg, 1.7 apg, 37.5% FG, 2-10 3PG). The 6-1 sophomore is not tremendously athletic but he’s plenty quick. He’s not a great shooter but his jumper looks decent enough. He’s not going to carve up defenses with penetration, but he can get into the lane and dish to open teammates. He handed out as many as 6 assists in three games as a freshman and tallied 50 for the year (vs. 30 turnovers) even though he only averaged 9 minutes a game.

In short, Jones seems to have the ability to be a solid player in the A-10 as he gains experience. He’s not great at anything but does most things fairly well. He’s a natural point guard with a good handle who looks for open teammates first. Whether Jones is good enough to lead the Rams, however, is uncertain. Freshman Stevie Mejia was more highly rated coming out of high school and is expected to push Jones for the starting job.

Jason Francis – (2.6 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 12 mpg). Jamaican-born juco started 27 games and gave the Rams some beef inside, but he was too big for his own good. The 6-9 widebody had trouble keeping up with URI’s fast pace. Even when the game slowed down, he had trouble finishing. Francis is bigger than his listed 280 pounds and has little elevation when he shoots. Although Francis hit 61.5% of his attempts, more than a few of his shots were blocked and he missed some seemingly easy scores.

Francis could give the Rams a bigger lift if he got smaller. He’s fairly mobile at his prior weight and has decent footwork and hands, but losing 30 pounds could work wonders. URI needs a bigger though more nimble presence down low.

Will Martell – Now listed at 7-0 feet, Martell appeared in 14 games as a frosh, playing just 27 minutes and making 1 of 5 shots. Martell is supposed to be a decent faceup shooter and he has good size, but it’s unclear whether he’s an A-10 level player.

NEWCOMERS

Orion Outerbridge – The 6-9 center (No. 140, PrepStars) is the crown jewel of the URI recruiting class and potentially the program’s missing link. Long and lean, Outerbridge is a fine athlete with big hops who gets quickly up and down the floor. He prefers to face up to the basket and has to learn to play down low, but his length and explosiveness allow him to score inside. Early in his career, his biggest assets will be rebounding and shot-blocking. As he fills out and polishes his post game, he’ll become a bigger factor on offense. Outerbridge should be a perfect fit for URI’s uptempo style. He might turn out to be the best bigman Baron has coached since Caswell Cyrus eight years ago.

Stevie Mejia – Savvy 5-9 sparkplug, named Gatorade’s Massachusetts Player of the Year, makes up for lack of height with quickness and fearlessness. A natural playmaker, Mejia likes to dart into the paint and kick out to shooters, though he finishes pretty well for his size. Just as important, he’s a very good 3-point shooter who defenders have to respect. He’ll battle sophomore Mark Jones for the starting job.

Ben Eaves – UConn transfer did not play much for the Huskies, but he could be a good player in the A-10. Eaves, a tremendous athlete, is a solid 225 pounds and has a budding inside-out game. He can shoot threes, score a bit down low and finish on the break. Eaves has barely played in two years, however, so it’s hard to predict how long it will take for him to make an impact.

Jamal Wilson – Rangy swingman, one of the better players in Philadelphia, is solid in most phases of the game. He’s a decent shooter and passer, rebounds well for his size and has good defensive potential.

SCOUTING REPORT

The team lost two of its best ball-handlers in Bitee and Daniels and needs new players to direct the offensive attack. Sophomore Marquis Jones, a true point, showed solid if unspectacular playmaking skills in limited duty. Newcomer Steve Mejia has excellent credentials and is supposed to be a better outside shooter.

Putting another good shooter on the floor is critical because the Rams suddenly lack outside punch. Jim Baron Jr. accounted for 99 of the 113 three-pointers made last season by players still on the roster. He needs help. Baron had a hard time getting open looks last season and it won’t get any easier if teammates can’t draw attention to themselves.

Both Barons will look to a pair of forwards to do just that. Potential star Delroy James has a versatile game similar to Daniels. UConn transfer Ben Eaves, another forward who can play inside and out, will also see plenty of action.

Scoring in the post, as is often the case with a Baron-coached team, remains a sore spot. Francis lacks lift and quickness. Seawright is turnover prone in the paint and shot a miserly 44%. He’s better than that, but he’s not a primary weapon. Ditto for Ulmer, a highwire athlete who’s at his best attacking the rim or filling the lanes on the break.

Given the limited scoring options inside, Baron might want to start the freshman center Outerbridge for his shotblocking ability. URI’s troubles stem in part from a hole in the middle of the defense. Players such as Cothran and Ulmer like to go for steals, but the result is an easy bucket for the opposition when their gambles fail.

Whatever the case, the rest of the Rams simply have to play better defense, especially team defense. Too many times teammates failed to help out, leaving each other exposed.

Smarter decision making on offense is also a must. Baron’s switch to a full-throttle attack two years ago has paid dividends, but at the cost of lost discipline. Like a single’s club, every player tried to score on his own once the losing began.

PREDICTION

The Rams have a good core of veterans, plenty of athleticism and a potent offense sure to rack up points (80.5 ppg, 3rd in the A-10). Another winning season and a tournament invitation are within reach if URI gets solid play at point and the Rams show deeper commitment to defense. The emergence of a new star to replace Daniels would help matters greatly.

Expecting all of those things to happen, however, is a stretch. Rhode Island is likely to remain in the middle of the A-10 pack.

WH’s

NONCON PREDICTION: 9-6

W – BROWN
L – At Duke
W – At Monmouth
L – VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
W – HARTFORD
L – vs Penn State (Palestra)
W – vs. Villanova/Towson (Palestra)
W – At Northeastern
L – Providence
W – NEW HAMPSHIRE
W – CENTRAL CONN STATE
L – At Oklahoma State
W – At Fairleigh Dickinson
W – AKRON
W – At Toledo

Brown and Duke play out as expected. Monmouth upset Charlotte last year and plays the kind of slowdown style that bothers URI. It also has all its key guys back. Could be a post-Duke letdown game, but I see a win. VCU is definitely beatable in the Ryan, but the Virginia Rams have a dynamite backcourt that could bother their Rhode Island cousins. Hartford is not bad. URI cannot and will not lose back to back games at home, though.

Next up is Penn State at the Palestra. Penn State is bigger and tougher. Huge game for Rhody in terms of RPI. A win and chance to meet Nova next would do wonders. A loss and Rhody gets to play … Towson.

The Rams follow with losses on the road to Northeastern, which might have its best team in years, and a healthy PC team that’s deep and experienced. Victories then follow over NH and CCSU, though Howie Dickenman’s teams usually play A-10 foes tough.

OSU could be beaten as Travis Ford tries to install his system. OSU is tough, though, and a big crowd is likely. Chance for a good URI upset and some A-10 respect in Stillwater. After that trip, Toledo on the road is the toughest game left, followed by a competitive and well-coached FDU team. Akron lost three All-Conference players but is very well coached.

Location: Amherst, Mass.

Enrollment: 25,876

Founded: 1863

President: Jack M. Wilson

Athletic Director: John McCutcheon

Athletic Web Sites: umassathletics.com, umasshoops.com, masslive.com

Nickname: Minutemen

Colors: Maroon and White

Arena: Mullins Center

Capacity: 9,493

Average Attendance:  5,968

Head Coach: Derek Kellogg

Overall Record: First Season

2007-2008 Record: 25-11 (10-6) NIT Finals

Record at UMass: First Season

Assistants: Adam Ginsburg, Antwon Jackson, Vance Walberg

ROSTER

2 David Gibbs FR PG 6-4 185 East Hartford, CT/Master’s (CT) School
4 Anthony Gurley SO WG 6-3 185 Boston/Wake Forest
*5 Ricky Harris JR WG 6-2 175 Baltimore/Winchendon School (MA)
11 Gary Correia SO PG 6-1 180 Providence/Mt. Hermon School (MA)
13 Travon Wilcher R-FR PF 6-7 210 Springfield, MA/Lee (ME) Academy
*14 Chris Lowe SR G 6-0 160 Mount Vernon, NY
24 Tony Gaffney R-SR F 6-8 208 Berkley, MA/Mt. Hermon (MA)/BU
25 Tyrell Lynch R-FR PF 6-9 230 Niagara Falls, NY/Laurinburg (NC) Institute
31 Luke Bonner R-SR C 7-1 245 Concord, NH/West Virginia
33 Matt Glass SO G 6-7 190 Underhill Center, VT/Mt. Hermon (MA)
50 Matt Hill SO F 6-7 210 Middletown, CT/Tilton School (NH)

*Returning starters (2)

OVERVIEW

Massachusetts didn’t get invited to the NCAA tournament last year, but it almost got the next best thing: An NIT title. The Minutemen went all the way to the final game in New York before falling to Ohio State.

The season wasn’t supposed to end on such a positive note. Two of the best frontcourt players in the league, including Player of the Year Stephane Lasme, had exhausted their eligibility in Amherst the previous spring. UMass was picked to finish in the bottom half of the A-10 by the league’s coaches and beat writers.

The Minutemen face similar circumstances once again. The team lost its three top frontcourt players, including A-10 Player of the Year Gary Forbes. What’s more, former coach Travis Ford fled to Oklahoma State and the new headmaster, Derek Kellogg, has never coached a Division 1 team.

Of course, Kellogg has been plenty busy the past few years. The former UMass guard under John Calipari in the mid-1990s has been assisting his old coach at Memphis. He’s as responsible as anyone for recruiting the players that put the Tigers in the NCAA title game last spring

Kellogg learned a thing or two, including an innovative offense that spreads the floor for penetration and 3-point shooting. Fortunately for the players, it’s not radically different from Ford’s full-throttle attack.

Yet the team won’t focus mostly on offense, as the prior staff did. Kellogg says he’ll put much greater emphasis on defense. “Defense wins championships,” he said.

Kellogg’s transition to head coach will be made easier by the veteran tandem of Chris Lowe and Ricky Harris, the best starting backcourt in the A-10. Joining them to form a very potent perimeter trio is talented Wake Forest transfer Anthony Gurley.

Kellogg’s most pressing task is to find a few players to solidify UMass in the paint. Luckily for him, Ford didn’t leave the well dry. Fifth-year seniors Tony Gaffney and Luke Bonner are A-10-caliber bigmen and several talented youngsters suit up, including former Auburn signee Tyrell Lynch.

The Minutemen guards are good enough to keep UMass in the top half of the league. Making a run at the league title will depend on how quickly a newly constructed frontcourt begins to assert itself, especially on the boards.

DEPARTED PLAYERS

Gary Forbes – Transfer from Virginia capped off a terrific two-year stay by winning the league’s Player of the Year award. Forbes was the team’s best rebounder and a surprisingly good passer, but it was his scoring that mattered most (19.4 ppg, 2nd in the A-10). The 6-7 Forbes presented matchup problems for every opponent. Quick and strong, he could post up smaller defenders, take bigger ones off the dribble or drain the trey. He wasn’t a great shooter, but he could bury teams when he got hot. At times Forbes made poor decisions or took ill-advised shots, and he was not the clear cut choice for MVP. Yet there’s no doubt his performance propelled the Minutemen to another 20-win season.

Etienne Brower – The transfer from Boston University was supposed to be a key contributor two years ago, but an unusually severe ankle sprain hobbled him the entire season. Fully healthy as a senior, Brower (12.7 ppg) showed why Ford had such high expectations. Except for a temporary midseason slump, Brower was one of the most devastating 3-point shooters (43% 3PG) in the league. He hit at least three treys in 15 games, often at key moments. Brower was also a good rebounder (6.9 rpg) and defender (48 blocks, 28 steals) who usually made smart decisions.

Dante Milligan – The former Pittsburgh recruit finally made the transition from wing player in high school to post player in college, though it did take him five years. By season’s end, Milligan had become a major factor with his inside scoring (9 ppg, 64% FG) and shotblocking (69). His production in the paint could be sorely missed.

Max Groebe – German-born shooter transferred to Cornell. Groebe (2.1 ppg, 36% 3PG) was part of the regular rotation early on, but he barely got off the bench in league play. He was not as athletic as other UMass wing players and was a subpar defender. The arrival of Gurley hastened his departure.

Papa Lo – Sophomore shotblocker from Senegal transferred to a lower division 1 program. Lo swatted 25 shots in just 89 minutes, an incredible rate of one block per 3.6 minutes (the league’s leading shotblocker, Shawn James, swatted one shot every 6 minutes.) Yet Lo was a nonexistent offensive threat (0.3 ppg, 3-7 FG) who knew little about the finer points of the game. Evidently Kellogg did not see Lo as a good fit for his system.

Trey Lang – The 6-8 freshman was arguably the highest rated recruit in last year’s class, but the son of former NBA center Andrew Lang struggled to pick up Ford’s system and adapt to college ball (5 games, 9 minutes).

Sedale Jones (3-6 FGs). Recruited 6-4 walk-on was given valuable minutes in a handful of games because of his hard work in practice, but he fell victim to a scholarship numbers game after the regime change.

RETURNING PLAYERS

Chris Lowe (11.8 ppg, 6.3 apg, 43.3% FG, 57 steals). The first recruit by Ford when he took over UMass, Lowe has become the engine of the Minutemen’s high-octane attack. He pushes the ball up the court as fast as any guard in the nation and excels at knifing through defenses. From time to time Lowe gets stuck among the trees and turns the ball over (99), but he shows great decision-making (214 assists) at such a breakneck pace. Lowe knows where his teammates like to score and he gets them plenty of open shots.

What’s made Lowe more effective is an improved jumper (34.4% 3PG). He won’t scare opponents but he can make them pay for leaving him alone. During the off-season he spent countless hours to further improve his shot and says he’ll surprise opponents again. At his best, though, Lowe is a clutch shotmaker who deploys a variety of runners and floaters to score in the lane. He also creates offense with his defense. He has quick hands and pressures the ball as well as any guard in the league. As a senior, Lowe was voted to the A-10’s preseason First Team. He’ll also be a candidate for conference player-of-the-year honors.

“He’s capable of being one of the best point guards in not only the Atlantic 10, but the entire country,” Kellogg said.

Ricky Harris (18.2 ppg, 43 FG%, 63 assists). Undersized but explosive wing guard blossomed as a sophomore and was named the A-10’s Most Improved Player. Harris finished 6th in scoring and he’s the second-highest returning scorer in the league behind Temple’s Dionte Christmas. In the Minutemen’s NIT run, Harris bounced back from a late January-early February slump to average a team-leading 20.4 points a game.

A big beneficiary of an uptempo system, Harris scores in a variety of ways. He spots up for corner three’s (37.4% 3PG) on the fastbreak before defenses find him. If he’s guarded tightly near the arc, Harris uses an ultra-quick first step to shoot into the paint for short jumpers or hopstep layups. Although just 6-1, Harris is a tremendous finisher in the lane. He also gets lots of easy points off steals (56). Altogether, Harris reached the 20-point mark in 18 games and notched a career-high 30 in a loss at St. Joseph’s.

His biggest weakness is defense. Harris sometimes loses concentration, especially when his offense sputters. Bigger guards can also give him trouble when they back him down. With a little more focus, though, Harris could be a very good defender. He has quick hands and feet, a strong build, and great anticipation.

Tony Gaffney (3.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 59 blocks, 39 steals). Lean 6-8 forward is one of the best defenders in the league and can guard almost any position. In a regular-season win over Charlotte, for instance, Gaffney harassed Leemire Goldwire into a poor shooting game. His length also bothers bigmen down low, though he’s not built to withstand a constant pounding against bulkier forwards.

Offense is another matter. Gaffney’s jumper looks decent enough but he didn’t hit many outside shots (2-14 3PG). Most of his baskets were of the garbage variety. Gaffney insists he’s a better scorer than he’s shown and Kellogg says he’ll have the greenlight to shoot more. He seems to possess enough skill to become a semi-threat down low. He’s quick around the basket and finishes pretty well (52% FG on 2-point shots). The bet here is he’ll step up his game with more playing time, just like Brower and Milligan before him. It’ll help that the guards will create good shots for Gaffney in the dribble-drive offense.

Luke Bonner (3.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg). Quirky fifth-year senior has not lived up to expectations, but he’s still a 7-footer with skills in a league that lacks dominating bigmen. Problem is, Bonner too often plays like he’s 6-feet tall. He’s developed a Mikan-style running hook but rarely seeks to score with his back to the basket. He’s not strong with the ball, gets stripped too easily and is pushed around inside by smaller opponents. It’s no wonder he’s prefers to step out and shoot 3-pointers (21-59, 35.6% 3PG).

For all his shortcomings, Bonner’s age and experience should come in handy on a younger team. He sometimes provides an offensive spark, tries hard on defense (25 blocks) and likes to draws charges. Kellogg has challenged the 245-pound Bonner to be more physical and dominate the glass along with Gaffney. The Minutemen’s postseason prospects would be greatly enhanced if he finally played to his potential, but it remains to be seen if he makes the necessary adjustments. If he fails to improve, the onus is on touted redshirt frosh Tyrell Lynch to fill the gap in the Minutemen’s middle.

Gary Correia (1.2 ppg, 42 assists, 17 turnovers). Promising 6-1 sophomore is talented enough to start for all but four or five A-10 teams. Correia takes very good care of the ball and is a solid passer. He’s quick like Lowe and a good defender, though not as slick with the ball and less effective at dribble penetration. His biggest asset is outside shooting. Although he only hit 26% of his 3-point attempts, Correia has excellent form and deep range. A great shooter in high school, his accuracy should rise as he matures and grows more comfortable at the point. He was more of a combo guard before he entered college and he’s still learning the finer details of the position.

Matt Glass (1.8 ppg, 37.5% 3PG). The 6-7 swingman from Vermont was one of just two freshmen to see regular minutes (Correia was the other). His primary asset is long-range gunnery. All but one of his 19 baskets were 3-pointers. In his best performance, Glass scored 14 points (4-6 treys) vs. St. Bonaventure.

Glass plays a bit like former St. Joseph’s star Pat Carroll. He has a smooth-looking shot and quick release and likes to utilize screens. Glass isn’t entirely dimensional. He’s an alert passer and hard worker with sound fundamentals. If he gets stronger and does a better job on the boards, Glass could be a good player. He is a better athlete than he looks and is smarter than most players his age. He’ll never end up on the All-Defensive team or posterize an opponent, but shooters like him are all too rare in the A-10.

Matt Hill (5 games, 8 minutes). Sophomore forward barely played as freshman as he continued to recover from an Achilles injury that cost him his final year of high school. In limited minutes, the 6-8 Hill showed good athleticism and a nice touch, but he’s still a big unknown. He was seen as a versatile player in high school who could score down low and on the perimeter.

NEWCOMERS

Tyrell Lynch – Former Auburn recruit, who grew up in Niagara, N.Y., did not qualify to play and enrolled at UMass last fall. With the graduation of Dante Milligan, Lynch fills a big role on a smallish Minutemen squad. At 6-9 and 235 pounds, he would be one of the biggest post players in the league. Long and athletic, Lynch is a good shotblocker and rebounder with an above-average offensive game. He can play with his back to the basket, pop 15-foot faceup jumpers and has even been known to drop a trey. “Quite honestly, we need him,” Kellogg told the Springfield Republican. “We need him to rebound, be a defensive presence and score some baskets, too.”

Yet for all his talent bigmen who sit out a year usually take awhile to reclaim their games. It won’t be any different for Lynch. He was not in the best shape when practice started and he needs to lose some weight.

Travon Wilcher – Massachusetts native sat out his first season to concentrate on academics and flesh out a thin frame. Ford said the 6-7 Wilcher was one of the most athletic players he’s ever signed. He’s a bigtime leaper who likes to dunk and block shots and is a gazelle in the open floor. Because Wilcher is unpolished offensively, he’s best suited to play power forward, but he lacks the muscle to battle bigger players full time. He’s listed generously at 210 pounds but could spend a summer in a meatpacking plant.

Anthony Gurley – Boston guard transferred from Wake Forest after the death of coach Skip Prosser to be closer to home. Gurley ((No. 38 PrepStars, 2006) can put up points in a hurry. He supplements 3-point range with a nice midrange jumper and also attacks the basket. As a freshman in the ACC, he averaged 6.4 points on 39% shooting, including a career high 24 vs. Georgia Tech. The 6-3 Gurley might be as talented as any perimeter player in the A-10. Few guards can match his combination of size, strength and athleticism. What he needs to show is more consistency on his jumper (32% 3PG) and good decision making (38 turnovers to 15 assists). Both were spotty as a freshman. Since he’s expected to start in a three-guard offense, Gurley will also have to help out on the boards and learn to defend bigger players.

David Gibbs – Combo guard with point capabilities (No. 138, Rivals) is fast in the open floor, shoots well from outside and uses his size and leaping ability to finish around the basket. Ford wriggled a verbal from Gibbs as a junior, and although his stock rose after a strong performance two summers ago, he stuck to his commitment, even after the coaching change. Gibbs played at the same high school as former Minuteman star Marcus Camby. He was also an AAU teammate of St. Joe’s recruit Chris Prescott.

“He’s a type of kid you can build this program around,” Kellogg told the Hampshire Gazette.

SCOUTING REPORT

The backcourt is the obvious strength of the team. Lowe makes the offense go and he’ll find a way to get some easy buckets for the bigmen. Harris and Gurley will supply the outside firepower. And all three will put pressure on opponents with dribble penetration. For a change of pace, Kellogg can go bigger with Glass at small forward without losing any outside shooting.

It will take time, however, for everyone to adapt to new roles in a new offense, especially the bigmen. Their development is crucial.

Of particular concern is rebounding (-1.5 margin), which was a weakness last year for UMass, especially before A-10 play. Kellogg has put heavy emphasis on boardwork in practice. “We’ve done more rebounding drills than a 7th-grade middle school team,” he said.

Gaffney could be one of the best rebounders in the league. Lynch also has the tools to be a glass cleaner. In a three-guard offense, the wing players also have to hit the boards hard.

How to get points in the paint is not as obvious. Bonner likes to hang around the 3-point line and Gaffney is not a fulltime answer. That leaves newcomer Lynch as perhaps the best option. The bigmen don’t have to score much, but they do have to finish when they get the chance.

They should get plenty of chances, too, under the new-fangled “dribble-drive-motion” offense. Put simply, the wing players constantly look to drive, dishing to bigmen for short-range shots or kicking the ball out to teammates for open treys. “Everything about this offense is about getting to the rack and hitting open threes,” Lowe said.

Yet by most accounts, this seemingly simple offense is not easy to master. For a first-time coach, even one very familiar for the system, the odds of his players struggling initially has to be considered high. If the Minutemen struggle early – UMass has a difficult noncon slate – it could prove costly later on.

All the talk of offense, meanwhile, cannot distract players from their defensive resonsibilities. On those nights when the outside shots are not falling and the inside game is missing, the Minutemen will have to defend better to have a chance to win.

“We’ve got to be able to lock people up,” Lowe said.

PREDICTION

The team might be on track for another 20-win season and potentially a third straight postseason tournament. Any A-10 program with such talented guards – in a league renowned for guard play – has to be considered one of the favorites. The UMass backcourt is arguably the league’s deepest and most talented in five years.

“We’re going to surprise a lot of people, just like last year ,” Lowe said.

Yet no one at UMass wants to settle for the NIT. The Minutemen veterans are now used to winning and the school is eager to get back to the NCAA for the first time since 1998. To get there, the players have to get with Kellogg’s offense quickly, the big guys simply have to get with it, and the defense cannot rest.

WH’s

NONCON PREDICTION: 9-5 (8-5 for RPI purposes)

W – vs. Arkansas-Monticello (2K Sports Classic)
W – at Southern Illinois (2K Sports Classic)
L – At Memphis
L – TBA, likely Duke, if UMass beats SIU (2K Sports Classic)
W – JACKSONVILLE STATE
L – At Green Bay-Wisconsin
W – At Toledo
W – BOSTON COLLEGE
W – HOLY CROSS
L – At Kansas
W – HOFSTRA
W – IUPUI
L – At Houston
W – VANDERBILT

UMass has a tough noncon sked, especially for a new coach with a new system. I could see as many as 9 Division 1 wins or as few as 5.

Arkansas-Monticello is a D2 school. Assuming a victory, UMass gets a very young SIU team. The game is in Carbondale, but SIU is even less settled in the frontcourt than UMass and it backcourt is not as good. This is a game a more veteran Minutemen team really should win.

Memphis has a very good frontcourt and is loaded with talent. An upset is not inconceivable but probably unlikely. If UMass beats SIU, the Minutemen would likely play Duke in the third round of the 2K Classic. I call it a loss. Duke’s defense carries the day.

Green Bay Wisconsin has all five starters back and it’s a physical team. I could see the Minutemen falling on the road, just like at IUPUI last year. Yet I don’t see UMass losing to W-GB and Toledo back to back. Both are winnable games against teams with less overall talent.

BC figures to be tough, but UMass is playing at home and the Eagles are young. Holy Cross loses 6-11 monster Tim Clifford and is not as talented as in recent years. UMass could lose either one, though.

A young Kansas team is supertalented and always tough at home. Hofstra is well coached and IUPUI is a solid team, but both lost the equivalent of college superstars (Antonio Agudio at Hofstra and George Hill at IUPUI).

Winning in Houston isn’t easy, although the Minutemen are capable with a superior backcourt. Vandy could be a big win at home. The students are on break and a big crowd is needed. The Commodores have become a very respectable program under Stallings. I expect a split.

Location: Philadelphia, PA

Enrollment: 7,554

Founded: 1863

President: Br. Michael McGinniss

Athletic Director: Dr. Thomas Brennan

Athletic Web Site: goexplorers.cstv.com, lasalle.scout.com, explorerbasketball.blogspot.com, lasalle-explorers.com

Nickname: Explorers

Colors: Blue and Gold

Arena: Tom Gola Arena

Capacity: 4,000

Average Attendance: 2,087

Head Coach: John Giannini

Overall Record: 350-215 (61.7% Winning Percentage)

Record at La Salle: 53-66

2007-2008 Record: 15-17 (8-8) No Post Season

Assistants: Walt Fuller, Horace Owens, Ashley Howard

ROSTER

0 Darryl Partin SO WG 6-4 180 Seattle, WA/Charis Prep (NC)
1 Vernon Goodridge JR C-F 6-9 230 Brooklyn, NY/Miss. State
2 Kyle Griffin SO 6-3 185 Allentown, PA/Germantown Academy (PA)
5 Kimmani Barrett JR G/F 6-6 190 Paterson, NJ
*10 Rodney Green JR G 6-5 190 Philadelphia
*12 Yves Mekongo Mbala JR PF 6-7 210 Elizabeth, NJ/St. Patrick’s (NJ)
14 Devon White FR PF 6-8 230 Philadelphia
*20 Jerrell Williams SO 6-8 210 Paterson, NJ/ Northfield Mt. Hermon (MA)
21 Terrell Williams SO 8 210 Paterson, NJ/ Northfield Mt. Hermon (MA)
*31 Paul Johnson SR F 6-6 195 Washington, DC
34 Ruben Guillandeaux JR PG 6-5 195 Brooklyn, NY/St. Patrick’s (NJ)

*Returning starters

OVERVIEW

The Explorers began last season with devastating losses to lowly programs such as Howard and Morgan State and easily could have folded. They didn’t.

The catalyst for a rally: an about-face by coach John Giannini. He installed talented swingman Rodney Green as fulltime point guard and scrapped his structured offense in favor of a free-flowing attack. LaSalle lost four straight non-home games to Mississippi, Depaul, Villanova and Florida State, but the team was extremely competitive and nearly pulled a few upsets.

The newly confident Explorers went on to win eight of their first 13 league games, including six on the road. LaSalle even won its first-round game in the A-10 tournament and gave eventual winner Temple its toughest battle during the four-day event.

Back from that team is every single player except one: clutch sharpshooter Darnell Harris. The departure of the 6-1 Harris, a Second Team All-League selection, is no small matter. He led the team in scoring and accounted for almost half of LaSalle’s 3-point shots, hitting an amazing 48% behind the arc. His loss puts LaSalle in the same situation as Charlotte and Dayton, other A-10 squads that lost elite scoring guards.

Like those teams, LaSalle has no shortage of options. Ruben Guillandeaux, the 6-5 junior, appears ready to replace Harris and supply outside shooting (career 40.4% 3PG). Sophomore gunner Kyle Griffin will also help.

What’s more, the half-court offense will be tilted to inside play to take advantage of 6-9 newcomer Vernon Goodridge. The 230-pound transfer from Mississippi State dominated practice last year and gives Giannini a low-post presence he’s always lacked.

“You have to have a little bit of patience, but he’s going to have a significant impact on this team,” Giannini said. “If he plays up to his potential, we could have a very special year.”

Goodridge will get help from rising 6-8 sophomore Jerrell Williams, one of the best young forwards in the league, and a cast of athletic tweeners ranging in height from 6-5 to 6-7.

The performance of Green at point remains a work in progress and Giannini needs to find a couple of go-to players when LaSalle needs a bucket. Yet the Explorers might just have enough balance inside and out to compete for the A-10 title.

DEPARTED PLAYERS

Darnell Harris – It took slightly more than three years, but the undersized Harris finally accepted his role as go-to scorer (16.6 ppg). He became more aggressive, hit a number of big baskets and led the Explorers to a surprising 7th place finish in conference play. Despite being the focal point of opposing defenses, Harris rarely took a bad shot or made careless turnovers (just 36 for the season). He canned a gaudy 48% of his treys, many from well behind the arc. The rest of his game was all too ordinary, but Harris’ efficient shooting propelled LaSalle far up the A-10 totem pole. He was selected to the All-Conference Second Team for his efforts.

Sherman Diaz – Energetic swingman (3.6 ppg, 43.6% FG) was a good defender who gave LaSalle a spurt here and there, but he was an unreliable shooter and a suspect decision maker.

RETURNING PLAYERS

Rodney Green (13.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 3.2 apg, 46% FG, 45 steals). After LaSalle’s early-season struggles, Giannini took a gamble by having the swingman handle the ball. Lacking a true point guard on the roster, he really had no choice. The experiment was shaky at first and can only be seen as a mixed success, but it bodes well for the upcoming campaign. Although Green struggled with turnovers (111) all year, he grew more comfortable running the offense and created matchup problems for opponents. His size allows him to pass over smaller defenders or muscle past them with dribble penetration. He also showed a much improved shot, hitting 16 of 47 three-pointers (34%) after failing to make a single trey as a freshman. Green is one of the few players who can grab a board, race down the court, score himself or set up a teammate. At just 6-5, he also one of the best players in the league at posting up.

As much as he’s improved, Green is not yet a complete player. His perimeter game and decision making are still suspect and he’s not always an attentive defender. How much he improves in those areas could determine if LaSalle reaches the postseason for the first time since the school joined the A-10 in 1996. It’ll help that Green will have a healthy Ruben Guillandeaux to share point duties and ease the pressure on him. When Guillandeaux is in the game, it frees up Green to attack the basket. He’s one of the best slashers in the league and a surprisingly good finisher inside.

Giannini likens Green to Mardy Collins. The former Temple star also transitioned from high school forward to college point guard and turned himself into a first-round NBA draft pick in the process. While Giannini won’t go as far to say the same will happen to Green, it’s not outside the realm of possibility. “Rodney has really progressed,” Giannini said.

Jerrell Williams (9.1 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 43% FG, 55% FT, 23 blocks). The 6-8 combo forward, named to last year’s All-Rookie Team, is one of the league’s future stars. In just his first year, he led LaSalle in rebounding and finished third in scoring. Williams is most effective in the paint, using his quickness and long arms to score and rebound. He reached double figures 17 times and grabbed 10-plus boards in eight games. Among returning A-10 players, only Kahiem Seawright and Derrick Brown averaged more rebounds.

Williams appears to have plenty of room to elevate his game. He’s shown ability to take defenders off the dribble, a means of attack that would become more lethal if he improves his 3-point shot (9-40). The presence of a legitimate bigman such as Goodridge should also give Williams more room to operate. And with Goodridge in the game, Williams won’t have to defend bigger players as much. He committed 86 fouls as a freshman trying to guard opponents who often outweighed him by 20 or 30 pounds. Turnovers were another problem. Williams coughed up the ball 85 times, and many of his turnovers were just plain silly. Everyone on LaSalle has to do a better job taking care of the ball, but especially Green and Williams. “He still needs to cut down on turnovers,” Giannini said.

Kimmani Barrett (7.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 49% FG, 28% 3PG). All-purpose 6-6 forward was a key contributor as a sophomore even though his overall game didn’t improve much. Barrett struggled early on like most of his teammates and failed to produce consistently. He’s not a good outside shooter, preferring to attack the basket or hit the offensive glass. He also turns the ball over too much. What should be his strength, defense, is merely above average. Barrett should be a lockdown defender with his length and footwork.

As a junior, Barrett has to expand his game or risk losing time. Goodridge will get plenty of minutes at center and require Jerrell Williams and Yves Mekongo Mbala to man the forward spots more often. There’s not much room in the backcourt either unless Barrett’s shows more outside punch. The guess here is that Barrett will respond to the challenge. The high-strung Explorers need a utility player exactly like him. Barrett is smart and versatile, and steady if unspectacular, at both ends of the floor.

Ruben Guillandeaux (7.7 ppg, 45% FG, 39.4% 3PG, 2.1 apg). Big 6-5 guard began last year on the bench with a wrist injury and never found his rhythm, alternating good stretches with bad. Yet a healthy Guillandeaux will be expected to help fan the flames of LaSalle’s resurgence. He might be the best shooter on the team and is one of the few Explorers who can create his own shot.

A smooth ball-handler, Guillandeaux likes to use quick jab steps or stop and pop, generally avoiding forays to the rim. When Green plays point, Guillandeaux likes to set up behind the 3-point line to catch and shoot. When the roles are reversed, he does a solid job to find Green or other teammates for open shots (51 assists, 27 turnovers). Guillandeaux is not a true point and has trouble defending smaller guards, but he’s more than capable of handling the position for 15-20 minutes a game.

What Guillandeaux needs to show is more consistency and a little bit of fire. He only grabbed 2 offensive boards the entire season, a reflection of his unwillingness to get his hands dirty or possibly reinjure his wrist. LaSalle simply needs a bigger contribution from him. Giannini believes he’s ready to step up and fill much of the gap created by the graduation of Harris. He has all the tools to handle the job.

Yves Mekongo Mbala (8.3 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 45% FG, 41% 3PG, 48 assists). Muscular 6-7 forward performed much like he did as a freshman. Mbala got some tough buckets inside, crashed the boards and battled hard to defend the paint against larger opponents. The one area in which he clearly improved was outside shooting. Mbala connected on 26 of 63 three-point attempts, compared with 5 of 32 shooting as a freshman. He can’t knock down treys with a defender in his face, but Mbala is plenty accurate if given an open look. Unfortunately, he has yet to parlay his outside prowess with a consistent attack off the dribble and he’s not big enough to score regularly inside. That’s why he’s not a double-digit scorer. Can he do more? Yes. Mbala is an explosive athlete who does everything fairly well. The presence of Goodridge and maturation of Williams should give him more freedom as a junior to play his own game, floating inside or out as the situation requires.

Paul Johnson (6.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 44.5% FG, 51 assists). The 6-7 forward, Giannini’s first recruit and the team’s lone senior, is LaSalle’s designated lunch-pail guy. He gets the toughest defensive assignments, handles rebounding duties and sets picks for more skilled teammates. He’ll score a few buckets a game, mostly of the garbage variety, but offense is not his calling card. Johnson doesn’t shoot well outside (7-24 3PG) and lacks staple inside moves. His defense and rebounding alone, however, will earn him regular minutes. He’s strong and highly athletic and can defend several positions.

Terrell Williams (1.8 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 37% FG, 15 steals, 4 blocks). Second-year forward is not gifted offensively like his twin brother. He more closely resembles Paul Johnson, a defensive-minded player who takes care of the dirty work inside. One thing Terrell shares with his sibling, however, is a penchant for careless turnovers (31). That’s got to stop if he wants more playing time.

Kyle Griffin (3.5 ppg. 1.5 apg, 36% 3PG, 21 assists, 14 turnovers, 71% FT). The 6-3 combo guard suffered a knee injury as a freshman and saw his season cut short after 15 games. Griffin is not as athletic as his teammates, but he’s a careful ball-handler whose outside shooting could give him an important role. LaSalle might need him on the floor to spread out defenses and give the Explorers more opportunities to score inside. If he can’t make his shots, however, there’s little reason for him to be on the floor. He’s not a creative passer or a stalwart defender.

Darryl Partin (2.0 ppg, 35% FG, 27% 3PG, 6 assists, 15 turnovers). The 6-4 combo guard didn’t play much in his first season, though he did shine in close losses to St. Louis and URI, hitting a pair of treys in each game. Partin is definitely an A-10 level athlete. He’s just not a point guard or a dead-eye shooter. LaSalle recruited him for his defense, but he’s likely to remain a deep reserve unless he dramatically improves his jumper. Early preseason reports suggest he made progress and could see an expanded role.

NEWCOMERS

Vernon Goodridge – Transfer from Mississippi State, once a highly rated recruit (No. 52 by Rivals in 2006), did not do much in his first two years of college, averaging 2.1 points and 2.5 boards a game in limited minutes. Yet he’s big and athletic and still oozes potential. Goodridge has looked terrific in practice and much is expected of him. He gives Giannini his first legitimate bigman since the coach took over the program four years ago. At the very least Goodridge should become a defensive presence as a shotblocker and rebounder. If he demonstrates consistent scoring ability down low, LaSalle will be very dangerous. “He’s really physically gifted, “Giannini said. “He would rank with the best [most athletic] players I’ve seen in the A-10.”

Devon White – One of the better power forwards in Philadelphia, White signed with LaSalle in the spring after a terrific senior season. Though almost 6-8 and 230 pounds, White has never lifted weights in his life and probably could add 15-20 pounds to his frame. He’s not a bad shooter around the basket but needs to put a lot of work into offensive game. An excellent athlete with long arms, White was a ferocious rebounder and shotblocker in high school. Those are the areas in which he can contribute in his first year or two off the bench.

SCOUTING REPORT

LaSalle can forget about a top A-10 finish unless the players buckle down on defense. Opponents shot a higher percentage (46.6%) against the Explorers than any other team in the league.

The addition of Goodridge is part panacea. He gives Giannini a legitimate interior defender to challenge the A-10’s top post players. The undersized Explorer forwards have often been mauled inside, forcing the perimeter players to drop down. With Goodridge anchoring the paint, guards can hold their positions and forwards can offer weakside help.

Despite their small size, the Explorers have actually been one of the top rebounding teams in the A-10 over the past two years. Last season the team finished third (+3.7). LaSalle figures to be at or near the top of the league again in that category. Afterall, the team basically traded the 6-1 Harris for the 6-9 Goodridge.

In the backcourt, the steady improvement of Rodney Green is essential to the team’s success. He’s not a natural floor leader, but he made good progress after he was switched to point. “He finished up last year very strong,” Giannini noted.

Green still has a way to go, though. He committed 111 turnovers, third highest in the A-10. Jerrell Williams was almost as bad with 86. Not surprisingly, LaSalle finished last in the league in turnover margin (-2.09). That’s why opposing teams took more shots. A similarly poor margin could ruin LaSalle’s chance of a first-round bye in the A-10 tournament.

Outside shooting, however, might not pose as much of a problem. Guillandeax and Griffin are good shooters and Green and Mbala have improved dramatically. If Goodridge lives up to expectations, his teammates on the perimeter are sure to get better looks.

PREDICTION

The Explorers will benefit greatly from all of the experience acquired over the past two years. This is no longer one of the youngest teams in the league. Giannini can count on six seniors and juniors to lead the way. The players have struggled, and grown up, together, making the Explorers a tight-knit bunch.

“This is the first time we haven’t been relying on players who haven’t played before,” Giannini said.

What’s more, the team’s success away from home gives the players plenty of confidence. Last season LaSalle won eight games on the road, six of them in league play, including victories over St. Joseph’s and Richmond. Winning on the road is a prerequisite to contending for a conference title.

The evidence points to a breakthrough year, but much rides on Goodridge’s success in shoring up the interior and Green’s maturation as floor leader.

WH’s

NONCON PREDICTION: 10-4

W – MORGAN STATE
W – FLORIDA STATE
L – Connecticut (Paradise Jam, Virgin Islands)
W – TBA, likely Southern Miss (Paradise Jam, Virgin Islands)
W – TBA, likely Valparaiso (Paradise Jam, Virgin Islands)
W – BUCKNELL
L – At Hartford
L – VILLANOVA
W – RIDER
L – At Cornell
W – MT. ST MARYS
W – MANHATTAN
W – HOWARD
W – PENN

The Explorers are my darkhorse pick to win the A-10 title. They have a much more difficult unbalanced league sked this year, hence a 5th place spot, but I like older teams consisting of players who’ve grown up together. The frontcourt is sound and I think Green and Guillandeaux will prove to be one of the better backcourts in the league. Their ability to win on the road last year also impresses me. Really, it’s time that LaSalle step up to the plate and do some damage. And there’s a chance with UConn, Florida State and Nova on the menu.

To the noncon sked:

LaSalle has a chance to do major damage in its noncon slate with lots of home games, including a surprising appearance at Gola by Florida State.

I see the Explorers avenging last year’s loss at Morgan State, which lost its top two players from a 22-win team. Then I see a sold-out Gola carrying the home team to a win over a young, inexperienced Seminole team that the Explorers almost beat in Florida last year (76-81). Call this one of my sleeper picks in the A-10 this year.

The Paradise Jam likely opens with a loss to UConn, but imagine the shockwaves if LaSalle wins. I figure the team will split its four games in the Virgin Islands. I see a tough matchup with a good Southern Miss team but the rest of the bracket isn’t easy to figure.

Back at home, a weakened Bucknell should be a problem. A road game at Hartford before the Villanova matchup is a classic trap. Hartford won 18 games last year, brings all its best players back and fires up a lot of threes. As for Nova, the Cats can be beat, but they are more talented.

In the last five noncon games, Cornell on the road is the biggest test. The Ivy League school went 22-6 last season and is the clear favorite to win the league again. Almost all its top players are back and the Big Red have some size, if not as much quickness as LaSalle.

Among the other teams, Rider lost Jason Thompson to the NBA and will fall back. Mt St. Marys and Howard should get blown out. Manhattan could be trouble with its athleticism and energy. And finally Penn figures to be much improved, but LaSalle makes it two in a row over their Big 5 rival. That hasn’t happened since 1989-91.

Location: Washington, D.C.

Enrollment: 20,220

Founded: 1821

President: Steven Knapp

Athletic Director: Jack Kvancz

Athletic Web Sites: gwsports.cstv.com, gwhoops.com, colonialhoops.blogspot.com

Nickname: Colonials

Colors: Buff and Blue

Arena: Smith Center

Capacity: 5,000

Average Attendance: 3,019

Head Coach: Karl Hobbs

Overall Record: 123-82 (60% Winning Percentage)

Record at George Washington: 123-82

2007-2008 Record: 9-17 (5-11) No Post Season

Assistant Coaches: Darrell Brooks, Roland Houston, Greg Collucci

ROSTER

1 Travis King R-SO PG 6-2 215 New Haven, CT/South Kent (CT) Prep
*2 Xavier Alexander SO G/F 6-6 215 Forest Park, OK
3 Tony Taylor FR PG 5-11 165 Sleepy Hollow, NY
*5 Robert Diggs SR WF 6-8 202 Brandywine, MD
*11 Wynton Witherspoon R-SR WF 6-7 197 Duluth, GA/Virginia Tech
12 Johnny Lee JR PG 5-8 166 Nashville, TN
13 Jabari Edwards R-FR F 6-9 200 Brooklyn, NY/St. Benedict’s (NJ)
15 Aaron Ware FR WF 6-4 190 Los Angeles
21 Hermann Opoku JR C/F 6-9 225 Vienna, Austria/South Kent (CT) Prep
*22 Damian Hollis JR G/F 6-8 205 Fort Lauderdale, FL
31 Noel Wilmore SR WG 6-3 190 Chester, PA
33 Matt Allbritton FR WG 6-4 180 Dallas
42 Joseph Katuka SO C 6-10 205 Nigeria/Montverde Academy (FL)

*Returning starters

OVERVIEW

For the Colonials, the upcoming season can be billed as the Return of the King.

Travis King, one of the best young guards in the league, injured his knee and missed his sophomore season. Minus its point guard, the GW backcourt fell into disarray – as did the team. The Colonials staggered to a 9-17 record and were one of two schools not invited to the league tournament.

It was a shocking reversal for program that earned three straight NCAA invitations and averaged more than 22 wins annually over the preceding four years.

Even with the return of King, the Colonials are unlikely to reach those lofty heights soon. Recruiting has been uneven lately and GW still has plenty of holes – mediocre outside shooting, a “weak” interior, a short bench.

What a healthy King will do is make the school far more competitive. The Colonials struggled most of last season, but the team began to jell by mid-February. GW went 4-4 and gave league heavyweights Xavier and Massachusetts all they could handle. And GW did it with a 5-8 walk-on, Johnny Lee, running the show.

Lee won’t be forgotten. He’ll get the chance to back up King. The Colonials also return Robb Diggs, one of the best frontcourt players in the A-10, and a pair of talented bookend forwards in Wynton Witherspoon and Damian Hollis.

The task for the Master Hobbit, err, Hobbs is to build a worthy supporting cast. If he can extract solid production from the bench, GW’s sequel to a disastrous 2007-08 season will be much easier to watch. A league championship ring is not in the offing, but certainly a trip to Atlantic City.

DEPARTED PLAYERS

Maureece Rice (9.2 ppg, 2.7 apg, 32.4% 3PG). The former league tournament MVP and Third Team All-Conference performer pulled a Houdini as a senior. Rice feuded with the coach, resisted his conversion to point and disappeared for long stretches. Suspended twice, he was kicked off the team with one week left. Although Rice still scored 9 points a game – down from 16 as a junior – most of his baskets came after the outcome was decided. It was a puzzling end to what had been a terrific career.

Cheyenne Moore (5.6 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 34% FG, 35% 3PG). Clemson transfer, a tantalizing 6-5 athlete with skills, was dismissed after two disappointing seasons. Moore’s problems appeared mostly mental. He took questionable shots, was careless with the ball and never really seemed to fit in.

Miles Beauty (4.8 ppg, 38% FG, 15 assists, 16 turnovers). Prized recruit from the famed St. Anthony’s in New Jersey failed to meet expectations. Beauty was given a chance to run the offense after King went down, but he did a poor job and was removed from the rotation. He was suspended in mid-February and later told he could not return.

RETURNING PLAYERS

Rob Diggs (14 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 49.6% FG, 31 blocks). Slender 6-8 senior is one of the best post players in the A-10 but didn’t get much recognition because of GW’s poor record. Although he’s usually defended by stronger players, Diggs uses his long arms to shoot over them or his quick feet to get around them. He sports the basic low-post moves, attacks the offensive glass and will knock down an occasional faceup jumper. Diggs topped the 20-point mark six times, including a career high 29 in a win over Dayton. Unlike many bigmen, he doesn’t hold the ball too long or commit many turnovers.

That’s not all. Diggs is the second returning rebounder in the A-10, and even if he isn’t a great one-on-one defender, opponents watch out for him because of his shot-blocking ability. He can affect a game in a number of ways.

Since he’s gotten better every year, there’s no reason to believe Diggs won’t improve as a senior. Yes, he could use a little meat on his bones, and he sometimes gets overpowered on defense, but Diggs more than holds his own. He’s a sure-fire All-Conference pick and perhaps even a darkhorse for player of the year.

Damian Hollis (9.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 42.4% FG, 31.4% 3PG, 81% FT). Versatile 6-8 forward was in a long funk until snapping out of it in mid-February. Hollis scored in double figures in four of the last six games, including a 22-point outburst vs. Rhode Island. One of the top rebounders in the A-10, he also grabbed 10 or more boards in seven games.

Blessed with excellent athleticism and an impressive set of skills, Hollis should be one of the best forwards in the league. Whether he lives up to his potential remains to be seen, though his late-season performance offers hope. He handles the ball well for his size, has 3-point range and is not unfamiliar with the finer points of post play. Smaller defenders have trouble guarding him down low and bigger ones can’t keep up with him outside.

What Hollis has to do is make quicker decisions and assert himself. He seemed to get discouraged easily and take a passive role at times. As a junior on a young team, it’s his job now to help lead the way. GW is unlikely to escape from the bottom third of the league unless Hollis plays to his considerable potential.

Travis King (5.7 ppg, 78 assists, 47 steals in 2007). The halt to GW’s winning ways can be directly traced to the absence of King, viewed as one of the best young point guards in the A-10. The redshirt sophomore was expected to start, but his absence forced Mo Rice to handle the ball and disaster ensued. Shaky point play hurt GW the entire year and the Colonials scored under 70 points a game (63.4 ppg) for the first time in the Hobbs era.

The return of King to full health is crucial to the restoration of GW among the league’s elites. As a freshman, he showed good floor vision and smart decision making on the fast break, both essential to Hobbs’ preferred uptempo offense that he was forced to jettison for much of last season. If given room, King can make open shots (41.7% 3PG) or take the ball to the rack. Though big and strong for point guard, he’s quick for his size and not easy to defend. Those physical attributes also make him a good defender (47 steals).

Recovering from a major injury and a one-year layoff, however, is no small thing, and it’s unclear if King has lost any mobility. Hobbs has a lot riding on his health.

Wynton Witherspoon (11 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.2 apg, 43% FG, 27% 3PG). The Virginia Tech transfer was terrific in the first half of the season to keep the struggling Colonials afloat. He reached double figures in 11 of the first 16 games and played with the poise expected of upperclassmen. Witherspoon faded down the stretch, scoring in double figures just twice in February and March, but that’s partly because teammates stepped up. Even as his scoring waned, Witherspoon contributed with his passing, ball-handling and boardwork.

A fifth-year senior, Witherspoon can be expected to play with more consistency, especially if King takes care of ball-handling duties. The 6-7 swingman often bore the responsibility to direct the offense when GW’s point guards failed to produce. Left to his own devices, Witherspoon is a triple threat on offense. Quick and wiry strong, he can shoot, drive or pass and pressure opposing defenses. He’s not a great defender himself, but Witherspoon does a reasonably good job when matched up with players his own size.

Noel Wilmore (6 ppg, 42% 3PG, 80% FT). Although his production yo-yoed all season, Wilmore finally began to justify his scholarship during league play. On a team desperate for outside shooting, Wilmore scored 24 points vs. URI (7 treys), 18 vs. Temple (6 treys) and 16 vs. St. Bonaventure (5 treys). Mixed in during the same stretch of games, however, were three goose eggs.

Wilmore will be in line for more minutes if he ceases with the disappearing acts. He knows his role now and is playing with confidence, a required state of mind for any good shooter. Wilmore better keep it that way. He’s just an average defender and doesn’t help the team much in other areas.

Xavier Alexander (4.0 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 37.7% FG, 43% FT, 30 assists). Sophomore forward is a fine athlete, but his offense has more holes than a teenager’s old jeans. He only hit double figures twice, in his second and third games, topping out at 11 points. Alexander is not much of an outside shooter (5-17 3PG) and had trouble scoring in close against bigger defenders. In time he can be expected to improve his jumper and learn to finish, but Alexander won’t be counted on for offense. He’s a key cog in GW’s press (26 steals) and excels on the fast break when opponents are forced into turnovers. Physically stronger than GW’s trio of slender forwards – Diggs, Hollis and Witherspoon – the 6-6 Alexander can also be counted to do the dirty work. In a late-season loss to Charlotte, he grabbed 14 rebounds.

Johnny Lee (1.8 ppg, 29% 3PG, 55 assists, 34 turnovers, 16 steals). Unheralded walk-on played a big role in GW’s late surge, starting nine games at point and giving the offense direction. In a loss at Xavier, he scored a career high 14 points (3-4 treys). He also notched 8 assists in a loss to Massachusetts. Just don’t expect numbers like that regularly. Lee is not a great shooter and his 5-8 frame is a handicap. What he does is take care of the ball and makes solid decisions. His sudden emergence gives Hobbs a capable backup to spell King and allow GW to maintain an uptempo pace.

Hermann Opoku (1.0 ppg, 10-20 FG, 6.3 mpg, 8 blocks). Junior forward is a tremendous athlete, but his basketball skills are anything but. Opoku is extremely undeveloped offensively. He doesn’t have great hands or react well to defensive pressure when he has the ball. GW clearly needs help at the center position, but Opoku does not appear to be the answer

Joseph Katuka (2 ppg, 48% FG, 67% FT, 7.7 mpg). Oft-injured 6-10 center displayed flashes of talent as a frosh, scoring 8 points vs. Maryland-Eastern Shore and 9 points vs. Duquesne. He’s long, agile and mobile. He’s also plenty raw and needs lots of work in the weight room and on the blocks. Katuka has a funny-looking shot and was easily pushed around in the paint. He didn’t offer much resistance defensively (just 5 blocks), either. Like most young bigmen, he’d do well to focus on defense and rebounding and lets his more skilled teammates carry the offensive load.

NEWCOMERS

Jabari Edwards –The 6-10 center (No. 240 PrepStars, 2006) played in two games before arthroscopic knee surgery sent his to the bench. The redshirt freshman spent the rest of the year trying to fatten up, with modest success. Edwards is a typical Hobbs frontcourt recruit. He’s long and athletic, but physically unimposing and challenged offensively. Yet with a big hole in GW’s middle, Edwards will compete for regular minutes. He’s a bigtime leaper with good shot-blocking potential and a better understanding of the game than teammates Opoku and Katuka. Sitting out last season also gave him a chance to develop without all the pressure.

Tony Taylor – Fast 5-11 point guard, who attracted attention from Big East schools, is said to have a high basketball IQ but his most notable asset is his ability to score. He’s a streaky 3-point marksman who averaged 30 points a game as a senior, a number helped by 90% free-throw shooting. GW needs outside shooting. Taylor will play as a freshman if he can provide some.

Matt Albritton – Well-traveled son of missionaries played his senior year at a small private school in Texas, and before that, in Palm Beach, Florida, where he’s been a prolific scorer at least since his sophomore year. Albritton is supposed to be an excellent 3-point shooter, though he’s big enough at 6-4 to score in other ways.

Aaron Ware – Little known 6-5 small forward is a quick leaper with long arms who’s supposed to be a good defender and a “glue” player. One scout said he plays with a “warrior’s mentality.” Since Ware is used to playing close to the basket, he’ll need to expand his range to become a major contributor in the A-10. Ware likes to attack the rim and is active on the glass, though his shot is suspect.

SCOUTING REPORT

The Colonials have a solid foundation on which to build and some carryover momentum from last season’s strong finish. The team ended with a positive rebounding margin and the defense buckled down after A-10 play began. GW finished second behind Xavier in both field-goal percentage defense and 3-point field goal percentage defense. Hobbs has lots of long, quick players who cover plenty of space.

The offense, meanwhile, is certain to improve if King resumes where he left off. His return helps in a number of ways. The Colonials can play at a faster tempo and they won’t finish last again in the A-10 in assists. GW is likely to press more to create turnovers, another steady source of offense in the Hobbs era. King will also help stretch defenses or create baskets for his teammates with his shooting and penetration.

Finding a suitable partner in the backcourt is critical. Hobbs needs a player who can shoot the trey and won’t turn the ball over much. GW finished last in assist-to-turnover margin and 14th in the number of 3-pointers made – just 169 compared to 331 for A-10 leader Massachusetts.

Wilmore came on strong in his third year and is GW’s best shooter, but he’s not a prototype Hobbs defender. Witherspoon might fit the bill, but he’s not a great 3-point shooter and has a hard time defending smaller guards. Alexander can handle the defensive part, but he’s one of the worst shooters on the squad. The frosh Taylor can shoot, but he’s probably not strong enough to play major minutes.

The frontcourt is in good shape, with one caveat.

Diggs is tough to defend inside because of his quickness and length while Hollis and Witherspoon are both versatile outside-in scorers. Yet none of the three is physically imposing and bigger frontcourts can push them around. Young centers Katuka and Edwards have potential, but they aren’t beefeaters either and lack the offensive skills of their older teammates. It’s an old story, but GW might take a pounding at times.

Hobbs can count on five or six players. Getting bigger contributions from several others will dictate whether the Colonials achieve a middle-of-the-pack finish or higher.

Assuming, of course, King is truly ready to return to his rightful place in the pantheon of A-10 guards. He’s as important to his team as any other player in the league. If he’s hobbled, GW will be, too.

PREDICTION

The Colonials field a much-improved team, evidence of which emerged late last season. While it may be too soon to suggest GW is ready to return to its winning ways, it’s not out of the question. GW has the starting five and overall talent to compete with any team in the league and is sure to beat a few of the perceived favorites. Cracking the top half of the conference is within reach.

Yet climbing the ladder in an increasingly tough A-10 is not as easy as it might have been a few years ago. Another weak nonconference schedule won’t help matters. The Colonials appear to have too many question marks to vault into a discussion of the league’s top teams.

WH’s

NONCON PREDICTION: 8-4

L – At Boston University
W – BINGHAMTON
L – At Auburn
W – UMBC
L – vs. Maryland (MCI Center, Washington DC)
W – HARVARD
W – AMERICAN
W – At Sacramento State
W – vs. Vermont (Rainbow Classic, Hawaii)
W – TBA, but likely Hawaii (Rainbow Classic, Hawaii)
L – TBA
W – At Longwood

GW has loaded up on beatable opponents. Every single one is beatable, with the exception of perhaps Auburn. I first had GW at 10-2 but that just seems too good, so I changed the BU game to a loss as well as a game in the Rainbow Classic.

The Colonials have beaten BU regularly in the Hobbs era because their length bothers the Terriers. Yet this BU team has a fine backcourt and enough muscle up front to deal with GW’s thin-sters. Should be a win but …

I think GW gets payback at home vs. Binghamton and UMBC, both of which beat the Colonials last year. Harvard should be much improved with all five starters back and a good freshman class. American has a dynamite backcourt and is the favorite to win the Patriot League. I could see a loss in one of these two games, but I call it a sweep at home.

GW flies to California and Hawaii in late December. Sacramento State won just 4 games last year and turned over its roster, adding a bunch of jucos. The field in the Rainbow is so weak GW might be the most talented team among the eight invitees.

The Colonials could get a tough test in the first game vs. Vermont, which has three of the best players in the America East conference, including a Michigan State transfer (Maurice Joseph). If GW wins, Hawaii would likely be next. The Rainbows lost almost all their best players from last year. Not sure who the third opponent would be.

Location: Bronx, N.Y.

Enrollment: 7,652

Founded: 1841

President: Joseph M. McShane, S.J.

Athletic Director: Frank McLaughlin

Athletic Web Sites: http://fordhamsports.com, http://xsorbit31.com/users5/rams/

Nickname: Rams

Colors: Maroon and White

Arena: Rose Hill Gym (Built 1925)

Capacity: 3,200

Average Attendance: 2,306

Head Coach: Dereck Whittenburg

Overall Record: 132-133 (49.8% Winning Percentage)

Record at Fordham: 65-83

2007-2008 Record: 12-17 (6-10) No Post Season

Assistants: Travis Lyons, Jared Grasso, Steve Treffletti

ROSTER

1 Jio Fontan FR PG 5-11 160 Jersey City, NJ
3 Trey Blue FR SG 6-3 190 Chicago/Brewster Academy (NH)
4 Herb Tanner JR WG 6-4 170 Boston/Stoneridge (MA) Prep
12 Kyrie Gordon FR PF 6-7 195 Philadelphia/Solebury (NJ) Prep
15 Lamar Thomas FR C 6-9 215 Littleton, CO/Solebury (NJ) Prep
21 Alberto Estwick FR WG 6-5 195 Jersey City, NJ
23 Mike Moore SO G 6-5 192 New Haven, CT
*24 Brenton Butler JR PG 6-2 205 Norcross, GA
32 Jacob Green R-SO 6-9 220 Clinton, MD/West Virginia
44 Luke Devine SR C 6-10 255 Wakefield, RI/Hargrave Military (VA)
50 Chris Bethel SR F 6-5 217 Bronx, NY

*Returning starters (1)

OVERVIEW

Back to the drawing board.

The senior-laden Rams, led by all-league performers Bryant Dunston and Marcus Stout, were supposed to contend for the A-10 title. The Rams were supposed to bear the fruits of coach Dereck Whittenburg’s five-year effort to rebuild a down-and-out program. The Rams were supposed to win 20 games and earn the team’s first postseason bid since the school joined the league in 1996. After all, the Rams under “Whit” had steadily increased their win total from 6 to 13 to 15 to 18.

It wasn’t supposed to turn out like it did.

Fordham finished 12th with a 12-17 record – and played boring basketball to boot. Rip Van Winkle never would have woken up if he had been slumbering in Rose Hill Gym.

Gone are five seniors who helped restore Fordham to semi-respectable status. It will be up to the next generation of Rams to earn a full measure of respect and take the school to the proverbial next level. It’s just not going to happen this season.

DEPARTED PLAYERS

Bryant Dunston – A four-year starter and the best Fordham player since the school joined the A-10, Dunston put up big numbers every year and was a workhorse inside. As a senior, he was selected to the A-10 Second Team after averaging 15.5 points (52.5% FG) and a league-leading 9.8 boards. He also swatted 79 shots, trailing only Duquesne’s Shawn James. For the New York native, however, it was always a tale of two city boys. Dunston was most comfortable in league play and often dominated, but he did not carry Fordham to a single signature out-of-conference win in his career. As a junior and senior, he performed better in A-10 games than in nonconference contests. It’s true he lacked a great supporting cast, but Dunston also lacked the forcefulness and perhaps the talent to truly carry a team. He was a very good player, but not an elite one.

Marcus Stout – Dunston’s most productive sidekick also put up good numbers, finishing second on the team in scoring (15.1 ppg, 35% 3PG) while dishing out 85 assists. Stout was not especially quick, but he was big and strong and found the open spots. He was not a consistent threat, however, and Fordham lost almost every game in which he shot poorly. In 14 of the Rams’ 17 losses, Stout shot well under 40%.

Kevin Anderson –Anderson took care of the ball (34 turnovers) and played sound defense, but he was the chronic liability. The least skilled offensive player (2.6 ppg, 38.5% PG) in the league, Anderson made just 12 three-pointers in four years and did not create much with dribble penetration. Because Whittenburg failed to find an adequate replacement, Anderson was in the starting lineup almost every game for four years. Only the coaching staff deserves the blame for that.

Sebastian Greene – Athletic combo forward remained an enigma until the end. Greene hit a few buckets every game (8.5 ppg), helped out on the boards (5.5 rpg) and was a good defender, but he rarely played with urgency or aggressiveness. A reserve in a starter’s role, Greene did what he was comfortable doing but little more than that.

Michael Binns – Rugged 6-7 forward (3.3 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 36.6% FG) was just as much a mystery as Greene. Binns was strong and athletic, but he never figured out where he fit in. At times he fancied himself an inside player, but eventually Binns would drift outside and hoist ill-advised treys (32% for his career). In his final two years, his minutes fell. As a senior, he scored in double figures only three times and was mostly a bit player.

Dan Landisch – The 6-6 forward from Milwaukee played just 44 minutes in two years.

RETURNING PLAYERS

Brenton Butler – Third-year wing guard, who looked very promising as a freshman, aims to bounce back from a so-so sophomore campaign. Butler did increase his scoring (11 ppg) and rebounding (3.4 rpg), but he shot poorly. His field goal percentage fell to 34% from 40.6% and his 3-point accuracy sank to 34.4% from 43%.

Part of the reason was an extended case of mono. Butler also beefed up 20 pounds before his second season and lost some quickness and lift. He could not get by defenders as easily or finish as well near the basket.

If the Rams are to avoid a big dropoff, Butler has to deliver more of the scoring bursts and clever passing he demonstrated as a freshman. Though recruited as a point guard, he’s not suited to run the offense (66 assists, 66 turnovers). His forte is shooting. The arrival of drive-and-dish point guard Jio Fontan might give Butler better opportunities. Improved conditioning – Butler shed 15 pounds over the summer – will also help.

Chris Bethel – Erratic 6-5 forward (3.1 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 44% FG) was in Whittenburg’s doghouse for most of November and December and was then ruled academically ineligible. Like in his first two seasons, Bethel showed glimpses of explosive scoring. In a win at Manhattan, he scored all 15 of his points during a first-half outburst. By the second half he was back in the doghouse. Bethel has never averaged more than 9 minutes a game in his first three seasons.

The question is why. Whittenburg has never said publicly. Bethel is strong for his size with surprising quickness. He’s not a great outside shooter but can get on a roll. He can score with his back to the basket and knows how to finish. His defense has never been a strong suit, however, and he doesn’t always play within the offense. The Rams sure could use the senior to step up given the team’s youth, but it would be unwise to count on him.

Mike Moore – Former Connecticut prep star started out with a bang in his freshman year but faded in league play. Moore (5.5 ppg, 37.5% 3PG) scored in double figures in five of the first nine games, including a 17-point performance (5-5 on 3-pointers) vs. Charleston. He only reached double figures in two other games and went into a funk. Moore hit just 6 of 30 treys in A-10 play after going 18 of 34 in nonconference action.

Moore doesn’t look like a future star, but he is a good player. He’s athletic and rangy at 6-5, with solid ball-handling ability. He’s already shown 3-point range and can get to the rack. What he needs to do as a sophomore is shoot consistently and rebound (1.8 rpg) better for his size.

Herb Tanner – The 6-3 junior was recruited as a shooter but it’s hard to tell. Tanner (2.5 ppg) shot just 25% on 3-pointers in his first two years. He’s under 50% for his career as a free-throw shooter. And he has not reached double figures in a single game. His stroke looks fine. Tanner has simply misfired badly on a number of shots.

It would obviously help if Tanner’s shot came around, but he can be useful in other ways. He has long arms and is very quick and could be an excellent defender. Tanner has also played some time at point and could fill in as a backup. He tries to be careful with the ball and makes some nice passes.

Luke Devine – Little-used 6-10 center only played 39 minutes as a junior, partly because of injuries. He might get more minutes as a senior but Devine is not an A-10 level player. He lacks the post skills or athleticism to contribute significantly at either end. He’s scored 1 point and grabbed just 8 rebounds for his career. It would be a minor miracle if he blossomed in his final season. At best he’s an intelligent role player who can set picks, defend the post and grab a couple of boards a game.

NEWCOMERS

Jio Fontan – Savvy 6-0 point guard (No. 144, Rivals) is the most highly regarded backcourt player signed by Whittenburg since he took over five years ago. At St. Anthony’s, where he was coached by high school legend Bob Hurley, Fontan was given the keys to the offense and assigned to guard the opposing team’s best scorer. Whittenburg will use Fontan the same way. He’s a natural leader who looks to pass first or create with penetration. Although he’s not a great outside shooter, Fontan has 3-point range and should continue to improve.

Jacob Green – The 6-9 sophomore (No. 290 PrepStars, 2006) transferred from West Virginia in search of more minutes. He’ll get plenty of them in the Bronx. The Rams are suddenly undersized and need a big body to defend in the paint. Green has never been much of a scorer, even in high school, but he’s a decent faceup shooter and has been working hard to develop a post game. Long and athletic, his biggest assets are shot blocking and rebounding. He has good defensive instincts and alters a lot of shots. Green does not become eligible until late December.

Lamar Thomas – Unheralded 6-9 bigman from Pennsylvania was not much of a scorer in high school but is said to have good hands and footwork. He’s best known for his rebounding and shotblocking. Since Fordham has little size, Thomas will get a crack at immediate playing time.

Kyrie Gordon – From the same school as Lamar Thomas, Gordon is the more athletic and talented of the pair. He’s a thin 6-7, with good quickness and leaping ability, who scores most of his points near the basket. Gordon is also a good shotblocker for his size, especially as a help defender. He could get minutes before Green gains eligibility. He’ll be outmuscled by most A-10 opponents, but his athleticism will give him a fighting chance to produce right away.

Trey Blue – Chicago native excelled during a year of prep school as he sought better scholarship offers. A quick wing guard who can get to the basket, Blue is best known for his outside shooting. He can hit threes in bunches but needs to work on consistency. He’s also supposed to be an aggressive defender. Blue will have to compete with returnees Butler, Moore and Turner as well as newcomer Eastwick for minutes.

Alberto Estwick – A teammate of Fontan, the Brooklyn-born Estwick did not start playing organized basketball until just before high school. He didn’t see much time on a loaded St. Anthony’s squad, but some scouts say he has great potential. The 6-3 guard is described as a bigtime athlete with good 3-point marksmanship.

SCOUTING REPORT

Whittenburg must not have liked what he saw when he looked down the bench over the past years. He rarely went more than seven players deep and gave reserves precious little time. It was his own fault, of course. He recruited everyone on the roster.

The coach has no choice but to look at his bench this season because so few veterans are left. Fortunately Whittenburg harvested his best crop of newcomers since the Dunston-Stout class of four years ago.

The best of the bunch is Fontan. Unless fairies really do wear boots, he’ll be the starting point guard from Day One. He’s a creative player who can rev up the Rams offense and create baskets for teammates. Rams fans haven’t seen a point guard do that since the Dutch ruled Manhattan.

With Fontan at point, the team’s two best returning players, Brenton Butler and Mike Moore, can play their natural positions. A fully healthy and lighter Butler should flourish at shooting guard in his third season. He shot 43% beyond the arc as a freshman, but his percentage fell to 34% in an injury-filled sophomore season.

Don’t be surprised if Moore comes on strong at wing forward. He can shoot the long ball and slash to the rim.

The inside game is unsettled. Undersized 6-5 senior Chris Bethel is likely to get the nod at power forward if his academics are in order, but he’s been in Whit’s doghouse for so long that the roof needs new shingles.

West Virginia transfer Jacob Green is sure to start at center, just not right away. The 6-9 shotblocker gains eligibility in late December. Until then, the Rams will have to rely on little-used senior Luke Devine or one of the freshmen “bigs” to anchor the middle.

Even with Bethel and Green, Fordham will struggle with inside scoring. Rebounding could also be a problem for the smallish Rams. Most A-10 foes have bigger frontcourts.

Nor is it reasonable to expect the young Rams to play the kind of tough defense Whittenburg demands. It takes time for a project to go from the drawing board to the basketball court.

PREDICTION

Fordham is going to suffer more lumps and bruises than an urban cowboy. The new-look Rams might not struggle as much to score – they averaged under 65 points last season – but the team will probably give up plenty of points. Young teams almost always struggle defensively.

A reasonable goal is to achieve another 12th place finish and get to the A-10 tournament. Equaling last season’s record would actually represent a major accomplishment given the team’s youth and lack of size.

It’s not what Whittenburg had in mind when he drew up his plan to revive Fordham. But then, neither were last year’s results.

WH’s

NONCON PREDICTION: 4-8

W – COLMUMBIA
L – At Villanova
L – MANHATTAN COLLEGE
W – PRINCETON
L – JAMES MADISON
L – At Hofstra
W – LAFEYETTE
L – FAIRFIELD
W – NEW HAMPSHIRE
L – Tennessee-Martin (Florida International tournament)
L – Florida International (Florida International tournament)
L – At Bowling Green

I go conservative with Fordham. I am not as confident in Whittenburg as I was a few years ago. The Rams generally performed poorly in noncon play even with more experienced teams. Perhaps a younger team less familiar with his ways will have more confidence. I seem to recall that being the case when the Dunston-Stout class first arrived.

Columbia is not very good and the Rams should get off to a good start – before traveling to Nova in the guise of a lamb prepared for slaughter. The next three are at home, and all would seem winnable, but I expect two losses. Fordham barely beat Manhattan in their place last year. The Jaspers have everyone back from a team that played well down the stretch. Princeton is decent enough and James Madison brings old friends Abdulai Jalloh and new coach Matt Brady in tow. Both teams are more experienced.

Hofstra lost top scorer Antonio Agudio, who killed Charlotte last year. Tom Pecora is a terrific coach, though, and the Pride are playing at home. Fordham can and should beat a Lafayette team devastated by graduation losses and NH, while much improved, does not have the same caliber of talent. Sandwiched between those two games appears to be a date at home vs. Fairfield. The Stags return all five starters, play good defense and have some beef upfront.

The Rams probably have little chance at Bowling Green, a tough MAC team that also has all five starters back. Fordham ends with two games at a tourney held by Florida International. Tennessee-Martin is the favorite to win the Ohio Valley Conference and has a great backcourt returning. FIU is older, bigger, more experienced (four starters returning) and playing at home.

Location: Pittsburgh, PA

Enrollment: 10,000

Founded: 1878

President: Dr. Charles Dougherty

Athletic Director: Greg Amodio

Athletic Websites: http://goduquesne.cstv.com, http://www.voy.com/14109/, http://dukeschat.blogspot.com, http://dukescourt.blogspot.com

Nickname: Dukes

Colors: Red and Blue

Arena: A.J. Palumbo Center (built 1988; renovated 2006)

Capacity: 5,358

Average Attendance: 3,091

Head Coach: Ron Everhart

Overall Record: 201-204 (49.6% winning percentage)

Record at Duquesne: 27-32

2007-2008 Record: 17-13 (7-9) No Post Season

Assistants: Bill Barton, Steve Hall, Scott Rigot

ROSTER

*1 Aaron Jackson SR G 6-4 180 Hartford, Conn/Worcester (MA) Academy
2 Chase Robinson FR G 6-2 190 Huntsville, AL
3 Eric Evans FR PG 5-11 195 Detroit
13 Jason Duty JR G 6-0 170 Cranberry Township, PA
21 Shawntez Patterson FR PF 6-7 180 Detroit
22 David Theis SO F 6-7 230 Pittsburgh/Mercersburg (PA) Prep
23 Melquan Bolding FR WG 6-4 190 Mount Vernon, NY/Notre Dame (MA) Prep
*25 Damian Saunders SO 6-7 210 Waterbury, CT/Notre Dame Prep (MA)
30 Bill Clark SO G/F 6-5 205 Redondo Beach, CA/Worcester (MA) Academy
31 Aleksandar Milovic FR F 6-7 220 Cetinje, Montenegro
32 B.J. Monteiro FR WF 6-5 195 Waterbury, CT
33 Rodrigo Peggau FR PF 6-8 230 Sao Paulo, Brazil/Patterson (NC) School
54 Oliver Lewinson C/F 6-9 240 FR Payson, AZ

*Returning starters (2)

OVERVIEW

The second year of Ron Everhart’s rebuilding effort can be viewed, like a cup, as half empty or half full.

Here’s the half-full part. The Dukes won 17 games overall and seven in A-10 play, the highest totals since the school’s last winning season in 1993-94. Everhart has done a great job recruiting – the latest class is one of the best in the league. He’s established an exciting style of play. And he’s attracted much bigger crowds, with attendance doubling to 3,000 from 1,500 two years ago.

Here’s the half-empty part. Everhart turbo-charged his rebuilding effort with short-term transfers and a constant revolving door, so the foundation of the program remains on unsettled ground. The top five scorers are gone, eight new players have arrived and the Dukes are rebuilding again.

Only time will tell which view is closer to reality. One thing seems clear, though. Everhart’s blueprint for success has some smudges, but the outline clearly shows a long-suffering program on the mend. It’s just going to take longer than it might have seemed one year ago.

“There’s not a whole lot of stability to build on,” Everhart told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

DEPARTED PLAYERS

Shawn James (12.6 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 3.9 bpg). Big things were expected from the Northeastern transfer, who led the nation in blocks three years ago. The 6-10 James did not entirely live up to expectations, but he was not a disappointment. Even though he did not dominate at either end, James led the team in scoring and rebounding and finished first in the A-10 in blocks (111). A thin, unorthodox shooter, James lacked dominant post moves and could be pushed around. A constantly shuffling lineup early in the season did not help his production. Nor did assorted injuries and dislocated shoulder late in the season. Nearly 25 years old, James decided to turn pro despite uncertain NBA prospects.

Kieron Achara (11.3 ppg, 53% FG, 4.0 rpg, 45 blocks). Fifth-year center never found a suitable role in Everhart’s revolving-door offense. Achara played 7 fewer minutes a game (19 mpg) and rarely saw time on the court with James. It was only when James got hurt that Achara appeared to find his game. Much of the fault lies with Everhart, but Achara is also to blame. He settled for jumpers and was not always aggressive inside.

Reggie Jackson (9.8 ppg, 3.4 apg). Juco point guard took a backseat early on to touted transfer Kojo Mensah, but Mensah’s carelessness eventually put Jackson back in the driver’s seat. He limited turnovers, distributed the ball well and knocked down open treys (43.8% 3PG). He saved his best for last, scoring a career high 29 in a tough 82-79 loss to LaSalle in the A-10 tournament. The Dukes might have been a better team by year end had Jackson started all along and gotten more than 21 minutes a game.

Gary Tucker – The 6-2 juco transfer, though not a classic wing, was the most athletic guard in the A-10, thrilling fans with soaring dunks, bursts of scoring and disruptive defense (31 steals). Tucker (9.4 ppg, 31% 3PG) was not a great shooter, however, and he would have been suited to a reserve role if the Dukes had a better player at his position.

Kojo Mensah (12.1 ppg, 38% FG, 24% 3PG, 99 assists, 89 turnovers) Touted Siena transfer gave up his final year of eligibility to explore pro options despite one lackluster season. Mensah appeared rusty and not as quick after a one-year layoff and failed to make a big dent in the A-10 like he did in the Metro Atlantic Conference. His production fell in every category and he become noticeably frustrated. Mensah turned the ball over too much to keep his starting job and he did not shoot well enough to be a topflight wing. Yet he still hogged the ball and took the most shots on the team. When he wasn’t scoring, Mensah did not exert himself much on defense.

Philip Fayne – Reserve big guard was forced to stop playing basketball after developing a rare form of arthritis. Though just a part-time player (3.5 ppg, 43% FG), Fayne’s physical presence and experience could be missed.

Stephen Wood – Onetime big scorer in New York prep ranks transferred after a disappointing sophomore season in which the 6-4 guard barely played.

RETURNING PLAYERS

Aaron Jackson (9 ppg, 4 rpg, 3.5 apg, 55% FG, 24% 3PG, 74% FT). Strong 6-3 guard was not the best player on Duquesne, but he was the most valuable. Jackson played more minutes than any of his teammates and gave the Dukes toughness and leadership. Though not a true point guard, Jackson handles the ball well enough (105 assists to 53 turnovers) to run the offense. Even if his outside shot is suspect, Jackson finds a way to get his points by pushing the ball in the open floor and slashing to the basket. He reached double figures in 13 games even though he took 10 or more shots just four times.

As the only four-year veteran on the roster, Jackson will have to guide his young teammates through the A-10 wars. A good defender (43 steals) and fine rebounder for his size, Jackson can play three positions. He can be expected to handle the ball in late-game situations if freshman Eric Evans shows jitters.

Bill Clark (8.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 38.3% FG, 31.3% 3PG, 41 assists). Sophomore forward is likely to build upon a solid inaugural season and become a main cog in the offense. Clark is not especially quick and doesn’t have big hops, but he’s a smart player with good passing and shooting skills. Although he hit just 31% of his treys, Clark should raise his percentage as he learns to pick his spots. He’s really a catch-and-shoot player who needs to get his feet set before he fires away. When he rushes, he often misfires badly. The 6-5 Clark is also an excellent rebounder, though his defense needs work, especially down low. He might have to defend the post more often with the loss of James and Achara.

Damian Saunders (6.5 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 48% FG, 35% 3PG, 48 assists, 45 steals, 39 blocks). Versatile 6-7 sophomore, named to the All-Rookie Team, had off-season surgery on his ankle. It’s unclear if he’s fully recuperated, but the Dukes surely need him. A healthy Saunders is a topflight athlete who can impact a game at both ends. He was a better outside shooter than his high school career suggested and he’s effective attacking the basket, especially along the baseline. With long arms and quick hops, he was the team’s second best rebounder and a shot-blocking threat.

Although the onetime Marquette recruit did fade in A-10 play, chronic ankle problems contributed to his difficulties. Unfortunately he didn’t have much time over the summer to develop the parts of his game that need improvement such as post play. Saunders is the team’s best inside threat simply because of his length and athleticism.

David Theis (1.8 ppg, 5-19 FG, 11 games). Reserve forward didn’t see much time after Everhart tightened his rotation, but he showed sound fundamentals and solid form on his shot even though he did not hit many. As a sophomore, a bulked-up Theis may play inside, at least on defense. His role on offense is less clear. Theis is not a low-post scorer or a big threat in the open floor, though he was a good 3-point shooter in high school. He might fare better as a center in the high post, where he could draw out defenders if he shows a consistent jumper.

Jason Duty (2.3 ppg, 11.4 mpg). Hard-working junior is actually a good shooter even though he only hit 29% of his 3-pointers. The recruited walk-on is not very big, however, and his defense is average at best. His time also fell after Everhart scaled back the practice of mass substitutions.

NEWCOMERS

Melquan Bolding – Former Louisville recruit (No. 119, PrepStars) signed with Duquesne after admission difficulties at the Big East school. Bolding uses his length and quickness to attack the basket and he finishes well in traffic. With so many departures at Duquesne, Bolding will get a chance to start. His athleticism and aggressiveness fit in well with Everhart’s style of play, although Bolding needs to demonstrate a consistent jumper. Duquesne has to find a few shooters in its large crop of newcomers.

Eric Evans – Tough lefty point guard (No. 179, PrepStars), one of the top players in Detroit, likes to push the ball, penetrate and dish. He accelerates quickly, has a nice change of pace and is strong for his size, which helps him finish even when he gets bumped. As a high school senior, he also showed range, hitting 40%-plus behind the arc. He’s unlikely to shoot as well in college, but he should be able to keep defenders honest. Because he’s the only pure point on the roster, Evans could start if he takes care of the ball.

Shawntez Patterson – A teammate of Evans, the late-blooming Patterson is a combo forward with big hops. He’s active around the basket and scores on short shots, tip-ins and putbacks. He’s reportedly still growing but is unlikely to fare well in the trenches until he adds some bulk.

BJ Monteiro – Late signee, one of the best players in Connecticut, is a high-scoring 6-5 swingman. He shoots well off the dribble and has 3-point range, though his jumper needs work. He can also post up smaller defenders or score in the lane with floaters and runners. Monteiro attracted attention from major programs last year until a poor performance on the summer circuit. He bounced back with a great senior season. Monteiro attended the same high school as sophomore teammate Damian Saunders.

Aleksandar Milovic – Little is known about the 220-pound spring signee from Montenegro, whom Everhart called one of the best young players in Europe. The coach said he’s a solid rebounder and “tremendous” shooter. Unless Milovic truly is one of the best young players in Europe, it’s hard to expect him to make a major impact as a frosh.

Rodrigo Peggau – Brazilian native became available after new James Madison coach Matt Brady suggested the 6-8 forward would no longer fit in. Peggau missed most of his senior season to knee surgery and had another arthroscopic procedure in September. Before his injury, Peggau received looks from some major programs. He’s seen as a versatile European-style player with a solid perimeter game and the willingness to get physical. A healthy Peggau might be the newcomer most likely to see plenty of action in the frontcourt.

Chase Robinson - Spring signee had a great senior season and was considered one of the better guards in Alabama. A 6-3 combo guard, Robinson is supposed to be a good shooter who’s strong for his size and able to finish off drives. He was also recruited by St. Louis and Tulane.

Oliver Lewinson – The 6-9 center, a late-summer signee, has been described by Everhart as a “pleasant surprise” in preseason practice. “He might be the most solid kid we’ve had in workouts,” Everhart told the Post-Gazette. “He’s going to play.”

Lewinson gives the smallish Dukes a big body to plant in the middle of the lane. He is not an explosive athlete or a big scorer, but he’s willing to bang and is said to be a good rebounder.

SCOUTING REPORT

Everhart won’t find it easy to integrate eight newcomers, all of whom are legitimate freshmen. Yet the latest class gives him plenty of raw material to fill gaps at center and point guard.

Eric Evans is almost certain to start at point if the goal is to build for the future. He’ll get plenty of help from veteran Aaron Jackson, one of the most underrated players in the A-10.

It’s less clear which of the bigmen will be able to contribute, but Lewinson and Peggau, if healthy, give the Dukes some badly needed size down low.

Another newcomer sure to see big minutes is Bolding, the former Louisville recruit. He’s a pogo-stick athlete who should jump out in Everhart’s system.

Which begs the question. What exactly is Everhart’s system? Sure, he likes to press and run, but the Dukes changed players and styles last season like a women’s clothing store.

The coach made a lot of mistakes, too. Everhart gave Kojo Mensah a starting position before he earned it. He failed to figure out how to play James and Achara together. And he wasted the talent of his best players by deploying mass substitutions.

Everhart will likely go deep with his lineup again, but there’s no need to replace all five players at once. Some continuity is not such a bad thing, especially on a very young team.

Beyond questions about the Dukes’ rotation, the offense remains a puzzle. The strength of the team is on the wing with Saunders, Jackson, Clark and Bolding. Pressing and running will help generate points, but youngsters tend to be turnover prone in a high-paced game.

When the game slows down, the Dukes will have to be creative. The team lacks a true low-post option and will probably rely on dribble penetration from the wing. The perimeter players can throw the ball inside to Saunders from time to time, but the rising sophomore is not yet a polished scorer in the paint.

Dribble penetration from the wing won’t be effective, however, if the perimeter players can’t shoot. Defenses will simply pack it in. The Dukes were the worst 3-point shooting team (31%) in the A-10 last season even with a bevy of veterans. There’s little reason to believe the current squad will do much better, particularly after an NCAA rule change to extend the 3-point line by one foot to 20 feet and nine inches.

PREDICTION

The Dukes will likely duke it out with Fordham to avoid last place. Even with good players such as Jackson and Saunders, the team is simply too young and too inexperienced to replicate last year’s winning record. Most A-10 teams are rich in veterans and have just as much, if not more, raw talent.

“This is the first time I’ve ever coached a team with so many young kids being depended on,” Everhart told the Post-Gazette.

Everhart will try to use his team’s speed and athleticism to fluster more experienced opponents. Expect the team to play an exciting brand of ball and there will be a few upsets along the way, but what’s most important is whether the Dukes are appreciably better at the end of the season than at the beginning.

Said Everhart: “There’s always tomorrow.”

WH’s

NONCON PREDICTION:
6-7

W – HIGH POINT
W At St. Francis (Pa)
L – FURMAN
W – South Carolina Upstate
L – At Duke
L – At Pittsburgh
L – At Radford
L – WEST VIRGINIA
L – OLD DOMINION
W – RICE
W – NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
L – At Robert Morris
W – BOWLING GREEN

I take a cautious view on Duquesne. I think it’s certain the team loses to all the big-name programs on the sked (Duke, Pitts, West Va). Too much talent, too many vets on those teams. Only WV strikes me remotely as an upset possibility.

As for the rest of the teams, some are very competitive and older than the Dukes, including ODU, Robert Morris (26 wins last year) and Bowling Green, which returns all five starters. So does Furman and Radford. Although both of those teams are beatable, I give Furman the nod because it catches Duquesne early while Radford is playing at home. Beating Bowling Green won’t be easy, but the young Dukes will have been tested enough to pull it off.

One caveat: coach Ron Everhart has usually exceeded noncon forecasts for his teams. He will use all his speed, athleticism and depth to apply intense pressure on opponents as a means to mitigate the disadvantage in experience.

While I predict a 6-7 noncon record, I could see the Dukes winning as many as 8-9 of these games. Six or seven wins is more realistic.

Location: Dayton, Ohio

Enrollment: 6,800

Founded: 1850

President: Dr. Daniel J. Curran

Athletic Director: Ted Kissell

Nickname: Flyers

Colors: Red and Blue

Arena: University of Dayton Arena

Capacity: 13,266

Average Attendance: 12,479

Head Coach: Brian Gregory

Overall Record: 98-60 (62.1% Winning Percentage)

Record at Dayton: 98-60

2007-2008 Record: 23-11 (8-8) NIT

Assistants: Billy Schmidt, Jon Borovich, Cornell Mann

ROSTER

0 Mickey Perry R-JR G 6-2 197 Maywood, IL/Wisconsin
1 London Warren JR PG 6-0 180 Jacksonville, FL
3 Rob Lowery JR PG 6-2 165 Forestville, MD/Cecil CC (MD)
4 Chris Johnson FR G-F 6-5 176 Columbus, OH
11 Stephen Thomas SO PG 6-1 170 Indianapolis, IN
15 Charles Little SR F 6-6 247 Cleveland, TN
22 Paul Williams FR WG 6-4 213 Detroit
23 Luke Fabrizius FR WF 6-9 205 Arlington Heights, IL
*32 Marcus Johnson JR F/G 6-3 196 Akron, OH
*33 Chris Wright SO F 6-8 226 Trotwood, OH
34 Devin Searcy SO F/C 6-10 226 Romulus, MI
*41 Kurt Huelsman JR C/F 6-10 245 St. Henry, OH
44 Josh Benson FR PF 6-9 205 Dayton, OH

*Returning starters (3)

OVERVIEW

The story has been well told. The Flyers glided to a 14-1 record, a top 15 national ranking and a certain bid to the NCAA tournament. Then stud freshman Chris Wright broke his ankle. A few games later, forward Charles Little fractured a foot. Minus its top two forwards, Dayton stumbled to a 7-9 regular-season finish and seventh place in the A-10. A semi-effective Little actually returned during that stretch, but the damage was done. The school ended up in the NIT.

Fast forward to the 2008-09 season. The Flyers only graduate one key player from last year’s squad, but a big loss it is. Deluxe scoring guard Brian Roberts led the team in scoring, free-throw percentage, assists – and clutch shots.

The good news is Wright and Little are healthy and the Flyers welcome a strong recruiting class. Wright, the explosive 6-8 sophomore, has First Team A-10 potential and can do things few players in the league can match. His star is on the rise and he’ll be expected to carry the load.

He’ll get plenty of help from a good supporting cast that includes Little, swingman Marcus Johnson and junior center Kurt Huelsman. The high-flying Johnson is ready for a breakout season and could join the league’s elite.

What’s unclear is where the shooting will come from. Coach Brian Gregory has a fleet of fine athletes who are capable of scoring from 15 feet in, but he needs a few players to stretch defenses and open up the middle for Wright and Co.

Another major concern is point play. Roberts was forced into the primary ball-handling role because of the erratic play of London Warren. It could be the team’s Achilles heel.

DEPARTED PLAYERS

Brian Roberts (18.4 ppg, 45.5% 3PG, 86% FT). The three-year starter, an A-10 First Team selection, will be remembered as one of Dayton’s greats. A highly efficient and versatile scorer, Roberts carried the team his entire career. He made teammates better (117 assists), hit countless big shots and was one of the most dangerous offensive players in the country. It’s unfortunate Roberts never had a supporting cast good enough to get him to the NCAA tournament.

Andres Sandoval (6.4 ppg, 30% FG, 33 steals). Combo guard was inconsistent during his two-year stay in Dayton. Sandoval oozed athleticism and potential when he joined the Richmond Spiders five year ago, but his career was hurt by academic problems, injuries and inadequate conditioning. A one-year hiatus at a junior college did nothing to improve his game between two stops in the A-10.

Jimmie Binnie – Small forward never rediscovered the shooting touch he showed as a freshman and was a role player in his final three seasons. Binnie played hard and didn’t make many poor decisions, but he was limited offensively (6.0 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 35% 3PG) and did not defend especially well.

Thiago Cordeiro (2.4 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 53.5% FG). The 6-9 Brazilian juco teased coaches with a surprisingly accurate jumper and his shot-blocking ability (team-leading 16), but he quickly fell out of favor because of his penchant for careless turnovers, ill-advised shots and poor positioning. He did not play in the final six games and transferred to a Division 2 school.

RETURNING PLAYERS

Charles Little (8.0 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 50% FG). Chiseled 6-6 power forward took a step back as a junior. Assigned the role of sixth man, Little did not adjust quickly to the presence of freshman sensation Chris Wright. Once his game started to come around, he suffered a fractured foot in January that caused him to miss three games. It hampered his performance the rest of the year. He only scored in double figures nine times and grabbed 10 rebounds just twice. His free-throw shooting was abysmal again (45%) and his defense above average at best.

Gregory needs and expects more from Little as a senior. Though not a traditional post player, he’s a good scorer around the paint. Little prefers to catch the ball 10 to 15 feet from the basket and make quick dribble drives to score on layups and short jumpers. He’s also a good weakside rebounder who soars to deliver thunderous dunks. Even if Wright is the budding star, Little has much to contribute with his athleticism and experience. Few players in the A-10 possess his combination of strength and explosiveness.

Marcus Johnson (10.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 48% FG, 38.8% 3PG, 76% FT). The third-year swingman is a classic slasher with big hops and an attack-the-rim mentality. Though just 6-3, Johnson gets a surprising number of baskets on tip-ins and putbacks. He also finished second on the team in rebounds.

Even more important, Johnson showed an improved jumper, especially late in the season. He hit 11 treys in the last seven games to equal the number he hit in the first 27 games. Johnson hit a few bombs off the dribble and others after the catch. If he keeps improving his shot, Johnson could pick up a sizable portion of the scoring that departed with Roberts. A good ball-handler, Johnson would also be able to take defenders off the dribble if they had to guard him on the perimeter. In the past opponents generally left him alone beyond 15 feet.

Johnson’s defense might the best part of his game. Already one of the top defenders in the league, he can guard three positions and shut down the other team’s main perimeter scorer. The situation is ripe for Johnson to blossom. Don’t be surprised if he makes a strong bid for one of the A-10’s all-conference teams.

Chris Wright (10.4 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 60% FG, 80% FT, 14 blocks). The league’s best freshman last year broke his ankle early in league play and was sidelined him from mid-January to late March. Before his injury, Wright showed exactly what made him so special. He scored 22 points in his first college game and 26 in his third, while winning the A-10 newcomer award in four of the season’s first six weeks. His inside scoring, rebounding and defense – combined with Roberts’ shooting – led the Flyers to a 14-1 mark and a top 15 national ranking. Dayton faltered badly after his injury, going 9-9 in games without him.

A healthy Wright will be expected to lead the team as a sophomore. He says he’s grown 2 inches to a legitimate 6-8 and he’s also bulked up. Arguably the most athletic player in the A-10, he scores in a variety of ways around the basket, using his quickness and leaping ability to explode by, or over, defenders. Despite his incredible gifts, Wright doesn’t always rely on sheer athleticism. He plays with more poise and intelligence than most players his age and appears to possess a natural ability to lead.

Like all sophomores, Wright’s game needs polish. He has to refine his back-to-the-basket skills, improve his handle and shoot better from deep (1-5 3PG), all of which he worked during the summer. If he improves in those areas, Wright would have all the tools to become a great inside-out forward and eventually a pro prospect.

London Warren (4.3 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 44% FG). The 6-0 “Jacksonville jet” should be called Mr. Incredible. For every incredible pass and assist (65), Warren makes an incredibly stupid turnover (75). That explains his 0.8 assist-to-turnover ratio, a pitiful mark for a point guard. Throw in poor free-throw shooting (51.5%) and a nonexistent outside shot and it’s a wonder that Warren ever plays. When he’s bad, Warren is very bad.

When he’s good, though, Warren is very good. As fast as any guard in the league, he puts tremendous pressure on other teams by pushing the ball or hounding ball-handlers (45 steals). And even though defenders lay off him, Warren is still quick enough to knife into the lane to feed teammates for easy scores.

His passing and defense alone are enough to make him a topflight A-10 point guard, if only he could reduce turnovers and made smarter decisions. And that’s the rub. There’s little evidence Warren can do that. Although he played better as a sophomore than as a freshman, his assists went down and his turnovers rose. Warren’s brain cannot keep up with his feet and it would be unwise to believe otherwise. Gregory can only hope that with maturity comes growth, but just to be safe, he recruited a point guard from junior college.

Kurt Huelsman (5.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 53% FG). Workmanlike 6-10 center is not a big leaper, but his game took a leap as a sophomore. Stronger and more confident, Huelsman became adept at using his big body to back defenders down. He scored more frequently with dropsteps toward the baseline or half-hooks in the middle. By making himself a threat in the paint, opponents even began to double team him. If Huelsman continues to improve, it will help create space for his teammates on the perimeter to shoot.

The best parts of his game are less evident. Huelsman boxes out, clogs the middle on defense and opens lanes for teammates to get to the basket. He plays solid interior defense, always hustles and doesn’t make many bad mistakes. The one area where he could make another leap is rebounding. Huelsman grabbed fewer boards than three of his smaller teammates, including the 6-3 Johnson. Although he’s not especially quick, Huelsman should be able to grab 5 or 6 boards a game. He reportedly worked on his conditioning in the off-season to improve his quickness and mobility.

Mickey Perry (2.8 ppg, 39% FG, 23% 3PG). The 6-2 Wisconsin transfer, known as a terrific shooter in high school, mostly misfired after he gained eligibility in December. Yet Perry made the best of limited minutes, taking care of the ball and playing good defense. With Roberts gone, he’ll see more time and perhaps settle into a role of third or fourth option. He lacks Roberts’ ball-handling skills and ability to create his own shot, but he’s more comfortable in the Flyers system and can better focus on what he does best.

Devon Searcy (6.6 mpg, 1.0 ppg, 1.2 rpg, 9-23 FG). The 6-10 sophomore has a knack for offensive rebounds and a decent touch near the basket, including a nice half-hook. His biggest problem was that he wasn’t big enough. Searcy lacked the strength to hold his position. More disappointing, he failed to show much explosion, blocking a mere 4 shots. Searcy could turn into a good player, though, if he works hard in the weightroom, and improves his post game. Preseason reports suggests he has done both, which is good news. The A-10 doesn’t have many 6-10 players with his length, athleticism and energy.

Stephen Thomas. The 6-1 point played sparingly as a frosh despite Dayton’s glaring need for someone who could protect the ball and hit open shots. Thomas made only 6 of 22 attempts and just 3 of 14 treys. It didn’t help that he was somewhat frail at 165 pounds and did not appear ready to play the sort of defense Gregory demands. Over the summer Thomas reportedly gained strength and improved his game. The Indianapolis native is a good ball-handler with above-average quickness, and like Perry, he was viewed as a topnotch shooter in high school. The jury is still out on whether Thomas is an A-10 level player, but Gregory has suggested the sophomore might seen an expanded role.

NEWCOMERS

Chris Johnson – One of the best players in Ohio, the 6-4 Johnson (No. 236, HoopMasters) was named to the state’s Division 1 First Team. He’s a high-flying swingman who does most of his scoring near the basket, and he rebounds and blocks shots well for his size. He’s not a great outside shooter, however, and will need to work on that part of his game. Based on preseason reports, Johnson is expected to be an immediate contributor. He adds to Dayton’s rapidly growing level of athleticism and Gregory’s penchant for players who can dig in on defense. “He’s going to be a big difference-maker for us this year,” teammate Chris Wright told The Dayton Daily News.

Paul Williams – The 6-3 lefty, considered one of the top players in Detroit (No. 100, PrepStars), might be the most physically ready to play among the freshmen. The 200-pound Williams is a good athlete with deep range and advanced defensive capabilities for his age. He’s also known to be an intense player who rarely slacks off. A preseason foot injury, however, prevented him from practicing and it’s unclear when he will suit up.

Rob Lowery – Juco point guard, a first-team Division II All-American, was recruited to give Dayton depth at point in case Warren falters. The 6-2 Lowery likes to push the ball and penetrate and he improved a weak jumpshot, hitting more than 40% of his treys last season. Such a high level of accuracy rarely translates well in the A-10, but Lowery should pose more of an outside threat. What Dayton needs most is good decision-making from its point guards. Lowery is thin for his size and it should be noted that very few transfers from his junior college (Cecil) have left a mark in Division 1.

Luke Fabrizius - Illinois native (No. 218, HoopMasters) was recruited by some Big 10 schools and is viewed as one of the best-shooting big forwards in the country. He’s a 40%-plus 3-point shooter whose game is strictly perimeter oriented, somewhat similar to Xavier’s Justin Doellman when he was a freshman. Fabrizius is mobile for his size and knows how to rub off defenders to get open. He could learn some low-post skills in time, but he’ll have to gain a lot of strength. Although Dayton could use his shooting right away, the physical rigors of the college game are likely to challenge Fabrizius as a freshman, especially at the defensive end.

Josh Benson – Touted 6-10 freshman dislocated a shoulder in preseason and is likely to redshirt. Voted to First Team Ohio in Division II, Benson (No. 161, HoopMasters) might be the most talented bigman Dayton has signed since joining the A-10. He is long and athletic, a solid faceup shooter with improving post moves. He’ll need time to fill out, polish his game and meet the intensity level of college ball, but Benson could be a fine player in a few years. Redshirting could actually turn out to be a blessing in disguise.

SCOUTING REPORT

Gregory has laid the bedrock for success. Dayton was one of the better defensive teams in the A-10 and finished second in rebounding (+4.9 margin). The loss of Roberts, a mediocre defender and rebounder, won’t hurt. A more athletic Flyers squad could improve in both areas; Gregory has assembled a bevy of long and quick players who cover plenty of space.

The post game is in great shape. Little plays big inside, Huelsman improved dramatically as a sophomore and Wright is primed to become a prime-time performer. That’s why the Flyers had one of the highest field-goal percentages (46.9%) in the A-10.

What’s less certain is who’ll provide the outside firepower. Roberts hit nearly half of Dayton’s 3-pointers (100 of 203) and shot 45.5% despite a high degree of difficulty, especially after injuries struck. The rest of the team shot a miserable 32% behind the arc – equal to the worst teams in the A-10.

A healthy Wright, however, will demand double teams and give his teammates better looks than Roberts got. Johnson showed improved range late in the season and Mickey Perry hasn’t forgotten how to shoot. It would help greatly if one of the newcomers, Paul Williams, makes an impact. It’s also hard to believe point guards Stephen Thomas and Rob Lowery can shoot any worse than London Warren.

Speaking of Warren, the junior guard faces a make-or-break season. Not just for himself but for the team. If he falters and Thomas and Lowery can’t provide an antidote, Dayton could be doomed to a middle-of-the-pack A-10 finish.

The bet here is that Gregory will obtain enough production from his point-guard trio to complement Dayton’s topflight frontcourt, arguably the second best in the A-10. Each guard brings a different set of offensive skills and all three can pressure the ball defensively.

Aiding Dayton’s cause is one of the best home-court advantages in the league. The Flyers have averaged six wins in conference play at UD Arena since the program joined the A-10 in 1996. The schedule appears particularly favorable for the upcoming season.

What’s more, Dayton’s experience should help the team on the road. The Flyers, with five seniors and juniors in the regular rotation, are one of the older teams in the league.

PREDICTION

After injuries swept through Dayton’s lineup last season, Roberts tried to carry the team, but the load was too great. The Flyers grew predictable on offense and most opponents were able to contain the star guard.

Ironically enough, the departure of Roberts is likely to infuse the Dayton offense with more creativity and give other players a chance to shine. With all the athletes at his disposal, Gregory could step up the full-court pressure. And in half-court sets, the Flyers will focus on an inside-out attack. It was the other way around during the reign of Roberts.

The Flyers still need better point play and a few shooters to grease the gears of the offense. Without a solid perimeter game, Dayton is unlikely to score enough to contend for the league title or punch a ticket to the Big Dance.

Yet with a bigtime talent like Chris Wright, the Flyers can beat anyone in the conference. Players with his combination of skill and world-class athleticism are rarely seen in the A-10. He impacts a game in so many ways opponents are forced to build defensive game plans to stop him. When the game is on the line, the ball will be frequently in his hands.

In that sense, he’s the perfect heir to Brian Roberts.

WH’s

NONCON PREDICTION: 11-4

W – WOFFORD
W – DELAWARE STATE
W – BETHUNE COOKMAN
W – MERCER
L – Auburn (Chicago)
L – Marquette (Chicago)
W – TROY
W – At Akron
L – At Creighton
W – COPPIN STATE
W – UNC GREENSBORO
W – MARSHALL
W – GEORGE MASON
L – At Toledo
W – MIAMI (OH)

This is a typical Dayton sked: Lots of home games vs. mediocre to decent midmajors, mixed in with a few high-profile opponents. I could see the Flyers losing as few as two noncon games, but I double the number to be safe.

The Flyers should win the first four games; Mercer is probably the toughest of the bunch. Auburn is quite beatable, small and not as talented as other SEC teams. I go conservative and call it a loss. Marquette has a great backcourt; Dayton doesn’t.

Back home a win over Troy and then a win at Akron, which suffered steep graduation losses. Creighton is good as usual and rarely loses at home to noncon foes. Dayton could beat every remaining team on the sked, but I expect one or two losses. Marshall has added a bunch of transfers and sharply improved its talent level. Playing at home, Toledo returns four starters and is good enough to beat the Flyers. Miami Ohio is solid again and usually gives Dayton fits. On the other hand, George Mason has now lost everyone from its Final 4 team. This should be a win.

Location: Charlotte, N.C.

Enrollment: 22,254

Founded: 1946

Chancellor: Dr. Philip Dubois

Athletic Director: Judy Rose

Athletic Websites: http://charlotte49ers.cstv.com,  http://ninernation.net,  http://gmine.blogspot.com,  http://charlotte.rivals.com

Nickname: 49ers

Colors: Green and White

Arena: Halton Arena (Opened 1996)

Capacity: 9,105

Average Attendance: 7,309

Head Coach: Bobby Lutz 11th Year (20th Overall)

Overall Record: 369-217 (63% winning percentage)

Record at Charlotte: 188-25

2007-2008 Record: 20-14 (9-7) NIT First Round

Associate Head Coach: Rob Moxley

Assistants: Bobby Kummer, Chris Cheeks

ROSTERS

00 Javarris Barnett R-FR WG 6-6- 230 Charlotte, NC
*2 Charlie Coley SR F 6-7 217 Lake Worth, FL/Dodge City CC (KS)
*3 Dijuan Harris JR G 5-9 175 Charlotte, NC/Hillsborough JC (FL)
5 Gaby Ngoundjo SO PF 6-7 240 Little Rock, AR
11 Ian Andersen JR WG 6-4 200 Portland, OR
*15 Lamont Mack SR F 6-7 230 Chicago/Angelina College (TX)
*21 An’Juan Wilderness SO PF 6-6 215 Dunwoody, GA
22 RaShad Coleman JR G/F 6-5 190 Atlanta/Heat Academy(VA)/Brewton-Parker CC
30 Phil Jones R-SO C 6-10 260 Brooklyn, NY/Laurinburg (NC) Prep
31 Charles Dewhurst R-SO G/F 6-5 190 Charlotte, NC

*Returning starters

OVERVIEW

Charlotte rebounded nicely under coach Bobby Lutz after only his second losing season in 10 years. The team won 20 games, returned to the postseason and scored big wins over Wake Forest, Clemson and eventual Elite 8 participant Davidson.

The turnaround earned Lutz, who had been on the hotseat, a cool five-year extension. Yet the school isn’t exactly overjoyed with two NIT invitations in three years since Charlotte joined the A-10. Fans and administrators want to return to the NCAA tournament, where Charlotte danced in five of Lutz’s first seven years, all as a member of the old Conference USA.

It was starting to look very much like this could be the year – until the loss of two key reserves. The shocking transfer of Mike Gerrity and a season-ending knee injury to freshman sharpshooter Shamarr Bowden leaves the Niners perilously thin in the backcourt. The team has just two legitimate guards left on the roster, only one of whom is a true point guard, and Charlotte is down to 10 scholarship players.

Charlotte can compensate with one of the best frontcourts in the league, including a fleet of versatile small forwards ready to help out in the backcourt. The team also returns an experienced roster with eight lettermen and four returning starters and it welcomes two talented newcomers. Lutz has more size and athleticism than at any time since the program’s glory days of C-USA.

The biggest challenge is to replace the shooting of top gun Leemire Goldwire. He took more than one-quarter of all the team’s shots and accounted for a whopping 47% of Charlotte’s 3-pointers, many in clutch situations and under intense defensive pressure.

Bowden might have supplied some of the firepower. The onetime Virginia Tech commitment hit 8 of 15 three-pointers in the first two games of Charlotte’s August trip to Canada. Without his services, Lutz may have to turn to junior Ian Anderson, a good shooter who’s also a defensive liability.

Then there’s the little matter of backup point guard. Dijuan Harris, a 5-9 junior, is one of the better floor generals in the A-10, but he can’t handle the ball 40 minutes a game.

DEPARTED PLAYERS

Leemire Goldwire (18.6 ppg, 126 treys). Third Team A-10 selection was a classic shoot-you-in or shoot-you-out type of player, but Charlotte mostly lived by Goldwire’s gunnery instead of dying by it. Goldwire finished 3rd in the league in scoring – and first in level of difficulty. No player took, or made, more contested 3-point shots. Goldwire topped the 30-point mark six times and carried the Niners for long stretches. He was also a pesky defender, notching a league-leading 70 steals, many of which he converted into quick baskets.

Mike Gerrity (4.9 ppg, 91 assists, 38 turnovers). Junior point guard mysteriously quit after the team’s trip to Canada. In his only season at Charlotte, the Pepperdine transfer displayed good ball-handling and passing. He did not shoot well (39% FG, 5-17 3PG), however, or finish off drives against bigger defenders. When the pace slowed down late in a game, Gerrity was a liability because of mediocre defense and a reluctance to take open jumpers. Despite those limitations, his departure robs Lutz of valuable experience and depth at point guard. He and Harris composed the best one-two punch in the A-10.

Sean Phaler – Little-used juco was recruited as a shooter, but he hit just one trey all year.

RETURNING PLAYERS

Lamont Mack – The 6-8 juco emerged as a major weapon in his first season. He finished second on the team in scoring (12.8 ppg overall, 15.6 ppg in A-10 games) and second in rebounding (5.1 rpg), while shooting 36.4% on 3-pointers (41.1% in conference play).

Though not an explosive athlete, Mack handles the ball well enough to take defenders off the dribble, and he’s strong enough to play with his back to the basket. He’s almost impossible to contain, though, when he gets his jumper going. Mack gets good separation from defenders with a terrific jab step, has a high release point and deep range. In Charlotte’s comeback vs. UMass in the A-10 Tournament, Mack hit 5 treys, including a pair of late 25-foot daggers. He flourished in league play, topping the 20-point mark three times in the last 11 games.

Like most good scorers, Mack at time forces his offense (83 turnovers), but his biggest problems come at the defensive end. He has poor habits – he reaches too much and doesn’t always move his feet – and fouled out of five games. In 13 other games, he ended with four fouls and sat for extended periods. The Niners need him on the court for more than 27 minutes a game as a senior.

Charles Coley (8.7 ppg, 50.2% FG). Another juco transfer, Coley is far more athletic than Mack but not as polished offensively. He’s most effective in transition and likes to work the baseline, using his quickness and leaping ability to outmaneuver opponents. He’s also a good rebounder (6.2 rpg) and topnotch defender (46 blocks, 43 steals). Coley has shown hints of a decent faceup jumper and he could be a double-digit scorer in his final season, but Charlotte probably won’t run many sets for him. His points are likely to come by his high-energy play.

An’juan Wilderness (8.1 ppg, 48% FG, 4.8 rpg). Rugged 6-6 small forward added a measure of toughness and aggression that had been missing from the Niners for several years. Wilderness is a nifty interior passer and versatile scorer who does his best work in a fast-paced game. He likes to score in transition, attack the basket after a few quick dribbles or muscle between opponents for in-close scores. Though not a superior athlete, he anticipates well and beats opponents with hustle. As his game matures, the sophomore needs to refine his ball-handling (78 TOs), extend his range and become a better shooter (27% 3PG, 58% FT). He’s not big enough to become a mainstay in the paint and Lutz needs more outside firepower with Goldwire gone.

Ian Andersen (5.8 ppg, 37% 3PG). Junior guard gives great effort but only excels at one thing: 3-point shooting. All but 19 of his 146 attempts were 3-pointers and he dished out a mere 16 assists. He shoots in a hurry and can knock ’em down in flurries (17 points vs. Tulsa; 15 points vs. George Washington). The farther 3-point line won’t bother Andersen, either. He’s used to taking shots well behind the arc.

If he showed better judgment, however, Andersen could be one of the most efficient shooters in the A-10. A bigger concern is his defense. Andersen is not especially quick and has trouble guarding athletic opponents. Despite his defensive shortcomings, Andersen will get a chance to start with the loss of Gerrity and Bowden.

Dijuan Harris – The Niners would not have won 20 games if the quick 5-9 point guard had not signed on with the local team last summer. A skilled ball-handler, Harris ran the offense (108 assists) very efficiently, limited turnovers (28) and played good on-the-ball defense (37 steals). He often played late in the game when Charlotte needed defensive stops or a point guard who could hit an open jumper.

The juco transfer didn’t score much (3.5 ppg), but when he did, it was usually because of good shot selection. Harris hit 46% of his treys, though he only made 28 attempts. Nor does he look to penetrate much.

The performance of Harris is critical with the depleted backcourt. He’s the only true point on the roster and has to play well for Charlotte to return to the postseason. With just a little more creativity, Harris could even become one of the best point guards in the league.

Charles Dewhurt – The 6-5 redshirt sophomore is a very athletic swingman who does a bit of everything. He plays hard, usually makes smart decisions and is a good defender (14 blocks, 21 steals). What he lacks is a defined role on offense (4.4 ppg, 35% FG). Dewhurt was a reluctant shooter, especially behind the arc (2-5) He did most of his scoring close to the basket, none of which was by design. He thinks too much when he has the ball and doesn’t react instinctively.

That could be a bigger problem in his second year because Dewhurst is practicing to back up Harris at point guard. Dewhurt’s hustle and attention to detail is welcome, but he also needs to be more instinctive and aggressive, even if he’s playing out of position.

Phil Jones (3.3 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 22 blocks). Redshirt sophomore, seen as perhaps the team’s top recruit two years ago, did little to excite in his first season. The 6-10 Jones played soft inside and preferred to take midrange jumpers. Although he has good-looking form and a developing half-hook, Jones only hit 33% of his shots, far too low for a player his size.

The Niners need a bigger presence down low, but it’s unclear if Jones is the answer. He’s not especially aggressive, and Lutz told him he had to get in better shape before the upcoming season . He seemed to tire easily and lacked explosiveness as a freshman.

Based on his performance during the team’s tour in Canada, it seems Jones has gotten the message. He played very well and excited the hopes of the coaching staff. The size and talent is there for him to become a dominant center in the A-10. Now he needs the attitude and effort to match.

Gabe Ngoundjo – If Lutz could combine the energy and tenacity of the second-year Cameroon native with the skills of the Brooklyn-born Jones, Charlotte might have itself an All American. Ngoundjo is raw offensively (1.2 ppg, 44% FG) and hesitant to shoot, but he has All-Conference potential as an interior defender and shotblocker (15 blocks). He’s quick and athletic, with very long arms and good anticipation. Ngoundjo still need plenty of work, though. He fouls frequently, bites easily on upfakes, bricks his free throws and committed too many turnovers. A redshirt season would have helped, but it doesn’t look likely.

NEWCOMERS

RaShad Coleman - Athletic 6-5 guard from Atlanta is a high scorer who attracted late attention from the SEC and Big 12. He put up big numbers at a specialized school that played many of the nation’s top prep teams, but he’s older at 21 than most of those against whom he competed. The A-10 is a big step up in competition. Coleman will get a chance to make an impact immediately. He’s supposed to be a good shooter who can score off the bounce.

Javaris Barnett – Local 6-6 swingman sat out as a freshman to work on his game and bulk up, adding 25 pounds during a redshirt year. Barnett is a good shooter with the size and athleticism to play both wing spots. He could even be used as an outside-shooting power forward. A late bloomer in high school, Barnett got lots of attention in his senior year before signing with the home team. Lutz is very high on him.

SCOUTING REPORT

The Niners have a talented group of forwards in Wilderness, Mack and Coley, who also plays center when Lutz goes small.

Wilderness is a rugged slasher with an improving shot. Coley is a superb athlete and one of the best defenders in the league. Mack is an explosive inside-out scorer.

The trio needs more help from underachieving 6-10 center Phil Jones, especially on the boards. Although the Niners were one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the A-10, Charlotte actually finished with a negative rebounding margin.

The Niners are set at starting point guard, but they cannot afford an injury to Harris. He is the only true point on the roster and no one else comes close. Whoever back him up – Dewhurst has been pegged – better be ready. Opponents will ratchet up the pressure the instant Harris heads to the bench.

Finding a replacement for Goldwire is the biggest hurdle to an invitation to the NCAA Tournament. Lutz likes to keep a few great shooters in stock, but Goldwire will be impossible to replace. “Even though we’ve got lot of the guys back, Lee was such a huge part,” Lutz told Associated Press.

Mack and Ian Anderson are two veterans who can pick up some slack and newcomers Coleman and Barnett might also chip in.

In any case, Lutz still has to tinker with the offense to generate more scoring and improve the team’s shooting percentage – Charlotte finished dead last in the A-10 at a paltry 40.1%. Expect an athletic Niners squad to press frequently and try to generate more points in transition.

When the pace slows, the Niners are likely to feed the bigmen down low more than in the past. Jones, Coley, Mack and Wilderness can all score inside. An improved post game – largely missing since Charlotte joined the A-10 – would ease the burden on the team’s wing shooters and give them better looks.

More often than not, though, Mack will be the focal point of the offense and teammates will work off him. What’s needed is for another player, perhaps Wildness, to emerges as a go-to scorer and second major peg in the offense.

PREDICTION

Charlotte’s return to winning ways was fueled by aggressive defense, good ball-handling (+2.53 turnover margin led the A-10) and timely 3-point shooting. Of those three pillars, only one is certain. The Niners will be tough again on defense.

The backcourt has become a source of unease and that’s never a good thing in a league in which the best teams usually have the best guards. Good ball-handling, perimeter defense and outside shooting are usually the hallmarks of a winning team.

If the Niners can keep Harris healthy and develop several consistent 3-point threats, they could go a long way. The A-10 lacks a truly great team and any one of eight or nine schools could legitimately compete for the league championship. Charlotte is one of them.

“We shouldn’t be picked to win it,” Lutz told the AP. “But I certainly think we have the talent — if we don’t have any more injuries — to have a chance to play with anybody.”

WH’s

NONCON PREDICTION: 9-5

W – UNC GREENSBORO
W – OLD DOMINION
W – At Appalachian State
L – CLEMSON
L – Arizona State (Anaheim, CA)
L – Providence/Baylor (Anaheim, CA)
W – TBA (Anaheim, CA)
W- At Southern Illinois
L – At Mississippi State
W – YOUNGSTOWN STATE
W – LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
L – At Maryland
W – TULSA
W – WINTHROP

Charlotte might have the toughest noncon slate in the A-10. Greensboro should be an easy win after heavy graduation losses. ODU is a tougher team, but it lost two of its starting guards. I think the Niners pull it out. App State on the road could also be tough. The Mounties lose Donte Minter but have some talented guards. Call this win an, um, “sleeper.” (-:

I go with three wins to start the season because I see three straight losses after that. The Tigers will be pretty good. Their backcourt is one of the best in the ACC. I figure they’re looking to return the favor after the Niners beat them in Clemson last year. Arizona State is young but loaded with talent and plays the kind of disciplined game that gives Lutz’s teams trouble. Providence is very experienced and deep and Baylor should win 20 games for the second year in a row. Any of these games are winnable, but I think guard play is the deciding factor.

SIU doesn’t have one of its strongest teams after two straight years of heavy graduation losses. Faulker is gone and the team is very young. Miss State is also very young, but I see home cooking fueling a win. This is one that the Niners should win and can win, particularly to have hopes of an NCAA bid. I am going to go conservative here.

After wins over mediocre Youngstown and LIU teams, Charlotte loses at Maryland. The Terps are also young and untested upfront, but the backcourt is very good. Again, Charlotte can and should win, but I play it safe with my actual prediction.

One reason I call Maryland a loss is because I call Tulsa a win. The Golden Hurricane smacked the Niners at home last year and return most of its top players. I think Tulsa actually has a better team – 7-foot center Jerome Jordan is an NBA prospect – but this time Charlotte benefits from home cooking. Last but not least, a win over a rebuilding Winthrop team.

While I officially predict a 9-5 noncon record, Charlott really should do no worse than 10-4.